05 06 2014 CGI – BMW – 1Q14A results comment

1Q14A group results in line with 1Q14E. Strong result at Automotive segment, despite front-loaded costs.  We keep FY14E estimates virtually unchanged and confirm those for 2015E-16E. Our 2016E EPS is EUR 10.34 and our YE14 target price of EUR 110.00 implies a 25% upside potential for BMW shares.

The short term technical outlook for BMW shares is neutral/negative.  The risks of BMW shares not holding support at that level are high, and we expect for BMW shares to test the next support level at the 200-day moving average at EUR 82. The long term positive outlook for BMW shares remains positive.

BMW 2014E – 2016E – BUY T

BMW (EUR 89.10) – BUY

2014E-16E outlook –  EPS growth at CAGR of 8.5%

Our 2016E EPS is EUR 10.34; our YE14 target price of EUR 110.00 implies a 24% upside potential for BMW shares

05 05 2014 CGI – BMW – 1Q14E preview

Automotive Analyst Sabine Blumel presents 1Q 2014 Results preview.

Our 1Q14E EBIT estimates are EUR 1.67bn/9.7% for the Automotive segment and EUR 2.10bn/11.2% for the group.

Our 2016E EPS is EUR 10.34 and our YE14 target price of EUR 110.00 implies a 24% upside potential for BMW shares.

1Q14E group: we expect that a 6.9% yoy increase in revenue to EUR 18.76bn generated yoy increases of 3.0% in EBIT to EUR 2.10bn/11.2% and 5.0% in net profit to EUR 1.37bn. We thus expect that BMW management will confirm their bullish guidance for FY14 of a ‘significant increase in its group’s pre-tax profit’, driven by ‘a significant increase in sales’.

At the dominant Automotive segment, we expect that in 1Q14E a reported a 8.7% increase in retail sales to 487.0k units (that include 108.0k sales in China, 62.5k of which were sold by a JV) generated a 9.3% increase in PBT to EUR 1.66bn/9.6%. We expect that a reported 4.8% yoy increase in fully consolidated retail sales to 424.5k units (incl. 45.5k cars imported to China) generated increases of 8.0% in revenue to EUR 17.18bn and of 5.3% in EBIT to EUR Continue reading →