Category Archives: Currencies

31Jul/13

Morning Market Commentary – August historically a down-month

Currencies, Morning Market Commentary

Historically, the month of August has been cruel to equity investors. August during the past 62 periods is the fourth worst performing month of the year for the S&P 500 Index, third worst for the TSX Composite Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average and second worst for the NASDAQ Composite Index. Weakest part of the month occurs in the first half. Worst performing country in the month of August, of the established international equity markets, is the German DAX, posting an average decline of -2.0% over the past 20 years; positive returns remained evident more times than not with only 8 of the past 20 periods ending with a loss.

Best performing country is the United Kingdom with the FTSE posting an average gain of 0.8% in the month of August, positive 14 of the past 20 years.

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21Jun/13

Morning Market Commentary – Global equities summer blues?

Commodities, Currencies, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

 

Markets opened in positive territory on Friday as the FTSE 100attempted to rebound after a dramatic three per cent drop the day before following the Federal Reserve’s announcement to scale back stimulus later this year.

 

London’s benchmark index tumbled an eye-watering 189 points on Thursday, falling 2.98% to 6,160 as markets reacted to comments from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who said that quantitative easing could come to a complete halt in 2014 if the economic recovery gains momentum. Disappointing factory-activity data from China also hammered sentiment yesterday, sending the UK index to lows not seen since mid-January.

 

Equity markets outside of North America recorded significant technical deterioration.

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20Jun/13

Morning Market Commentary – Buy Agri-commodities, Corn, Oil, NatGas

Commodities, Currencies, Oil, Gas & Energy

The US$ had been tremendously overbought, both versus the Yen, but also against the Euro, as we had highlighted in our Q2 Global Strategy Outlook, and reiterated this fact “ad nauseum” since March 2013.

So, it is of no surprise to us that the US$ has entered the recent correction versus both the Yen, but as of later now the Euro too, on the contrary, we are expecting for the EUR/US$ to continue to its EUR/US$ 1,3650 resistance, and break above it, as the US$ has entered its weak seasonality period, between April and October.

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05Jun/13

Morning Market Commentary – All about the Nikkei

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

 

Fundamentally and long-term focused however, we continue to advise our clients to add towards Japanese equities.  Investors should focus on both domestic asset reflation stock plays in Japan, and on Japanese companies with strong exporting profiles, as the Yen weakness will continue to improve their overall competitiveness and earnings capabilities in the coming years. Continue reading →

08May/13

Morning Market Commentary – Sell in May effect true

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals

We continue to advise our clients to lighten up on equities, same in 2013 as in 2012, 2011 and 2010, and to wait for a better opportunity with lower global equity prices to materialize over the coming two to three summer months to re-allocate capital back into risk, as this market performance anomaly has proven to have been profitably over three decades, by choosing alpha generating investable strategies.

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01May/13

Morning Market Commentary Sell in May, AAPL reiterating sell/short; Gold & Silver to go higher

Apple, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Technology, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

The period for seasonal strength in equity markets concludes on May 5th, after which a trendless market is the average.  Economic events over the next few days, including central bank announcements and employment report releases, are likely to set the tone for the month ahead. The technical backdrop of equity markets has shown deterioration over recent months, particularly pertaining to momentum, and the likelihood is increasing that a market correction is near based on recent warning signals that have become prominent in April.   Stocks have been up 6 months in a row. And April finished at a historic high of 1597.57.

Each May is different. And there have been some very profitable summers in years past. So it’s never wise to just take this saying at face value and truly walk away from the markets.  The resilience of stocks to be pressing all-time highs after 3 straight weeks of soft economic reports (including a scary showing for Chicago PMI in contraction territory) is making it hard to say what exactly would make stocks go lower at this stage. Meaning that investors seem quite comfortable with the ebb and flow of muddle through economic growth. And as long as the Fed is on the side of investors, with all that QE, then there is no reason to walk away?

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29Apr/13

Morning Market Commentary & weekly charts SPX rolling over

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

Weekly Investment Conclusion: We are advising clients to use the temporary seasonal weakness to increase holdings towards select equity strategies, as equities are the better value asset class, versus cash, bonds, alternatives, combined with the lowest downside risk.

For our clients with a shorter term investment perspective, we recommend to take profits in equities sectors with seasonal weakness, as we see evidence of equity markets rolling over temporarily, and for bonds to enter their period of seasonal strength until mid summer.

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24Apr/13

Morning Market Commentary – Currency impact on corporate earnings and equities pricing, AAPL Sell/Short reiteration

Apple, Currencies, Jabil, Technology

Just as an update on a major subject, which most sell side economists, strategists and analysts have grossly overlooked still so far yet, the impact of a temporary strengthening US$ against major currencies like the Yen, the Euro on US exports/imports, current account, and on corporate revenues and earnings. We had started to point to this significant subject in our Q 2 Global Strategy Outlook, and already do we see impacts of this highly overlooked and underestimated subject on earnings releases for major US companies, like Caterpillar, Coca Cola,  AAPL, JBL, BA, to name just a few.

22Apr/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – Global Equities running out of steam

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

This past weekend’s meeting of the G-20 has been described by some as highlighting that there is only minimal coordination between the main economic powers. Japan was not singled out for reprobation. The G-20 and the BoJ have made it very clear to the financial community that Japan has the green light regarding continued quantitative easing and resulting in continued Yen weakness. We expect the US$/Yen 100 level will fall soon, and moving towards our 2013 price target in coming months. Short term, we expect the US$ to run into resistance at the psychologically important US$/Yen 100 level, which it hasn’t crossed since April 2009.

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17Apr/13

Morning Market Commentary – US$ impact on US equities, SPX, Nasdaq, RUT continuing to weaken;

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy

The fact is, the US$ index is down over 33% in the past 35 years. Below we have added a few charts elaborating on a major subject which we clearly part with the “so called experts” on economics, and stock markets, who are now predicting a period of US$ strength, paired with simultaneous strength and outperformance of US equities:

Well, for those “experts” and their opinions, let’s see if they have a point, as we believe a few pictures are worth a few million (wasted) words. Let’s look at the chart of the US$ versus the S&P 500 going back to 1980.

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16Apr/13

Morning Market Commentary-Major breakdowns for US stocks, sectors, Oil, Gold, Silver, WTI, another -15% downside risk

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

Equity markets around the world recorded significant technical weakness yesterday. Much of the weakness was recorded prior to the Boston explosions. The explosions accelerated weakness near the close. The 9.1% one-day slump for the price of gold was the steepest fall in 30 years. Gold prices had recovered by as much as 2.0% this morning. The CME Group Inc. said yesterday it was the minimum collateral requirements for trading in benchmark gold, silver and other precious-metals futures contracts. The CME also raised the margin to trade palladium by 14%, and for platinum by 19%.

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15Apr/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – PROFIT TAKING in global equities; Commodities

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

Well, the profit taking has started. Despite continued resilience in the US equity markets, benchmarks around the globe have begun to trend lower, showing a series of lower-lows and lower-highs, a characteristic of a negative trend.   

“Sell in May” has come early for equity markets in Canada, Germany, France, United Kingdom, and China. Negative pressures in equity benchmarks around the globe combined with significant declines in commodity markets is resulting in an increased probability that a top in United States equity markets is near, if not already realized.   Trend line support for the S&P 500 is presently just above 1550, making this a logical point to trigger the conclusion to the seasonally favourable period for the market, which ends on May 5th, on average.

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09Apr/13

Morning Market Commentary US$ impact on EPS, EUR/US$ reversal

Commodities, Currencies, Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

As per our prior warnings, sell side analysts have been like usual late to the plate with regards to currency adjustments for US companies.

For now, consensus estimates show that first-quarter earnings reports released by major US companies will be sluggish. Consensus earnings estimates for the 30 Dow Jones industrial average companies shows an average (median) gain of only 3.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis.

With 25% of S&P 500 earnings coming out of Europe, and 6% coming from Japan, we think that most sell side analysts are behind the curve on this. The negative impact on first quarter earnings by international companies due to strength in the US$ on a year-over-year basis will be mentioned frequently when first quarter reports are released during the next three weeks. The US$ Index averaged approximately 81.0 in the first quarter of 2013, up from approximately 79.0 in the first quarter last year. At the end of the quarter, the Index was at 83.14 versus 79.00 last year. However, the US$/Yen has fallen by -31.5% since September 2012, which is in line with our forecasts, and this will weigh significantly on EPS for Q1 and will continue to be a negative surprise for analysts throughout 2013, particularly, as we anticipate the US$/Yen to be at 1.12 by year end 2013.

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08Apr/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly charts

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

“Sell in May & Go Away” or is it “Sell in April”, like it was in 2012?
Japanese companies see the continued weakening of the Yen as an opportunity to increase investments abroad, and are buying foreign assets. European companies are generating more than 50% of their earnings from outside of the Eurozone, and for the Eurostoxx 600, about 30% of earnings are coming from emerging markets. Hence why we see better buying opportunities in Japanese and European stocks.

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04Apr/13

Morning Market Commentary – US Markets Technical Deterioration

Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

Japan’s economy has been hurt by a variety of factors, not least decades of deflation or falling prices. Falling prices discourage people from spending and companies from investing, and that has trapped Japan in a cycle of sluggish growth and recession. Given the slowdown in Japan’s export sector in recent years, reviving domestic demand has become ever more crucial to spurring a fresh wave of economic growth in the country. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also said that stoking inflation is key to boosting domestic consumption. Under pressure from the government, the central bank had doubled its inflation target to 2%, earlier this year.

The YEN fell against the US$, and Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index rose 2.2% on the central bank’s decision, indicating markets were reacting positively to the extent of the stimulus measures.

US equity markets are slowly rolling over, yesterday some significant technical damage was done. US equity markets started to roll over. Yesterday’s technical negative action increased significantly.

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25Mar/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

Cyprus deal done. Stocks advanced strongly on Monday morning after 11th-hour talks to save Cyprus from default resulted in a last-minute bailout deal with the Troika. Following a meeting of Eurozone finance ministers that lasted almost 12 hours, Cyprus agreed to a EUR 10 bn aid package that doesn’t include a controversial across-the-board bank-account tax but involves forcing big losses on uninsured depositors.

Cyprus is about as economically significant as the German city-state of Bremen, and yet the attention of citizens and politicians alike was focused on the debt-ridden country on the continent’s periphery last week and through the weekend. Since Cypriot parliament rejected the initial bailout plan, one crisis meeting followed the next in Berlin, Frankfurt and Brussels as concepts were presented, revised, rejected and resubmitted. In the end, the European Central Bank (ECB) imposed an ultimatum on the country. The message from ECB President Mario Draghi was that either Cyprus agrees to the bailout conditions or it could be the first member of the Eurozone to declare a national bankruptcy.

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22Mar/13

Morning Market Commentary

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

Global equity markets have had a very mixed performance so far, the question begs, is it time for the inevitable correction?

Or is there a bit more room on the upside?

If all the BRIC countries are struggling, that is a big concern. Maybe the SENSEX rallies from here. The chart above shows a very important pattern that usually identifies major tops. Taiwan and Singapore are starting to soften on the ETF’s. Most of the commodities looked like they were at a pivotal point too, be it related to the US$’s recent temporary strength.  The Rest of the World dragged down the US market in 2011. If commodities, and emerging markets are not rallying from here onwards, then we see cause for a softening of US equities in a rather large move down through the summer. $COPPER would suggest the move is to the downside. US housing starts and Transports would suggest the move is to the upside.

We do not say that the trend for global equity markets has reversed, but surely a correction of 5% – 8% is not far ahead, and we are advising our clients to add towards strategic equity positions when it will occur. When looking at aggregate performance since January 1st 2012, the Nikkei 225 is up 48%. In the last three weeks alone, the Nikkei has risen 8%. Frankfurt’s Xetra Dax is second best, with a gain of 36%. The Nasdaq is next, followed by the S&P 500. Continue reading →

15Mar/13

Morning Market Commentary – Natural Gas Breakout

Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

The energy sector was buoyed by a breakout in natural gas prices. Natural gas prices surged by 3.59% to US$ 3.812 mBTU’s after the Energy Information Administration reported that inventories fell by 145bn cubic feet last week, 18.5% below the same level last year. The consensus estimate was for a 137bn cubic-feet fall. Nat Gas prices have risen by over 9% month to date, with the market betting on a tighter supply and demand situation following a cold winter season, signs of a recovery in the US economy, a drop in drilling rigs, growing uses for the fuel, and a shift away from coal-fired plants.

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11Mar/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – Global Equity Markets

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

Weekly Investment Conclusion:

Strength in US equity markets last week triggered by surprising strength in economic indicators was unexpected. US equity markets quickly regained short term momentum. Positive psychology related to the Dow Industrials reaching all-time highs also helped. This week, economic data is expected to be positive again and the S&P 500 Index (a more significant US equity index) will have a chance of reaching its all-time high at 1,576.09, despite short and intermediate technical indicators once again have returned to overbought levels.

Selected sectors with favorable seasonality at this time of year remain attractive purchases candidates on weakness. The trigger could be a rollover of the US$ from a highly overbought level. When it happens, and we do think this will happen within days, commodity stocks including metals & mining, energy, coal and steel stocks will come alive. All recorded exceptional gains on Thursday and Friday.

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08Mar/13

Morning Market Commentary – GDP improvements, US$ Weakening

Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

More support for global equities due to slowly but gradually improving global economic expectations and economic outlook.

GDP in the Euro area as a whole, we think might surprise on the upside and are expecting a +0.2% GDP number for 2013, and +1.0% GDP for 2014, as we are seeing more evidence of government policies in Europe, but also around the world starting to make progress, and hence why we are expecting for global GDP growth to accelerate in 2014, albeit slowly for Europe, the UK, the US, but more rapidly in Japan, China, India, Africa, Brazil, Russia and emerging economies like the Philippines, Thailand, Turkey, Poland. Continue reading →

04Mar/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – Currency Wars Musings

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

We still see the current US$ temporary strength as a good opportunity for investors to increase equity holding in international companies. The current temporary strength of the US$ and its inverse impact on global commodities prices as a good opportunity for US institutional investors to increase their weightings in foreign equities and commodities, and particularly to those benefiting from a seasonality point of strength, we advise investors to add towards the following equity markets and sectors: …..

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01Mar/13

Morning Market Commentary – Time to go long on the EURO again

Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

The Euro is in oversold territory. We expect the Euro to reverse it’s latest weakness, as the “Italian Job” damage is done, and investors will focus on the macro aspects which matter most at this stage.

The current temporary Euro-weakness has enabled European governments and corporates to initiate hedging positions for the next 18 months, which will ensure their global competitiveness, and so we are advising investors to buy the Euro at the current levels of 1.30. We maintain our 3 – 6 months price target for the Euro at EUR/US$ 1.38. The Euro typically enters a period of strength form April – July.

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25Feb/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts Bullish on Oil, Gold,

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

Weekly Investment  Conclusion: The current, and shallow correction between now and the end of March will provide investors with an opportunity to accumulate sectors on weakness that have a history of seasonal outperformance until the traditional “Sell in May & Go Away” period, which may start this year, again like in 2012, ahead of its usual acclaimed season. Last year, we did forecast the “Sell in May & Go Away” equities peak correctly as of April 2nd.

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22Feb/13

Morning Market Commentary US$, US Market Charts, SSES, Italy, Greece

Apple, Currencies, Morning Market Commentary, Technology

European Economic Outlook for 2013.  Clearly, …………………………………………………more mixed macro news ahead.

We see technical evidence for the long-term bullish trend to remain intact until there are greater odds of a looming recession. Or until stocks become overvalued. Neither is a real concern right now. Not even with the government cost cuts from the sequester going through post March 1st.

So, we are recommending to add towards Asian, and European equities if, and when the correction increases in velocity.

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20Feb/13

Morning Market Commentary EUR/USE;US$/YESN;SSEC;AAPL

Apple, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Technology

Apple stock continues to look for a lower price. The gap down from January is a major sign of more selling volume to possibly join the carnage in the once biggest stock in the world. Shares of Apple have not moved above its 50-day moving average since September of last year, precisely when the new iPhone and iPad were launched.

We maintain our “Sell/Short” recommendation on AAPL, with our 3 – 6 months price target of US$ 320.

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13Feb/13

Morning Market Commentary – No sell signals yet NDX;AAPL;Currency Musings;Global Automakers

Automotive, Currencies, Fiat, GE, Gold & Precious Metals, Honda, Hyundai, Morning Market Commentary, Peugeot, Renault, Technology, Toyota

We continue to see one good investment solution to the problem of global currency wars:  Investors should continue to buy Gold.

We have been recommending for 3 years to “sell/short” the French OEM’s and also Fiat, in Italy, which in retrospect clearly was an alpha generating call for investors over the entire time period.

Given recent macro-dynamic changes, in monetary policies, impacting currency markets around the world, namely the Yen weakening substantially versus most currencies, particularly the US$, the EURO, but also mostly against the Korean Won, we have become bullish in September 2012 on Japanese stocks, calling for a major rise in the Nikkei, and implicitly seeing a bullish case in favor of Japanese car companies.

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11Feb/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts-Currency Manipulation vs Gold

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

As we have written in the past years, most countries are artificially pushing down their exchange rates in an attempt to obtaining competitive advantages at the expense of others. And if they all manipulate their own currencies, all sides will end up losing out. At the EURO summit, as well at other Central Banker policy meetings as of late, we have heard over and over that currency wars are impacting policies and inherent competitiveness issues.

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08Feb/13

Global Markets Strategy & Equities Outlook – Bullish on Japan & China

Allianz, ArcelorMittal, Banking, BMW, Commodities, Currencies, EADS, FORD, Gold & Precious Metals, Hyundai, Industrial Manufacturing, Jabil, MAN, Mitsubishi, Nestle, Oil, Gas & Energy, SAP, Seimens, Sony, Strategy, UBS, Unilever, Utilities, VW

As you know we turned very bullish on Japan and China in September 2012, and have been advising to overweight allocations towards the Nikkei and the Shanghai Indices, as we recognized major turning points in those markets due to changes in government leadership and implicitly new and improved stimulus policies going into effect as of Q4 2012.

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04Feb/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

History shows that US equity markets in the year after a Presidential election move higher into the first week in February in conjunction with fourth quarter reports, weaken thereafter until the end of March and moves higher thereafter. Given political events scheduled in the US during the next two months, history is repeating. Continue reading →

28Jan/13

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

Global Equity Markets, what next?  Overheated?  Or much more to go?  While funds continue to flow into stocks, as we were forecasting since mid-December, money continues to move away from the bond market; particularly treasuries that have seen yields spike almost 400 basis points since the start of December.

Treasury yields have broken firmly above a long-term declining trend line that had remained intact for almost two years, diverging from the positive trend of equity markets over the same period.

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03Oct/12

Morning Market Commentary – Bull or Bear?

Apple, Commodities, Currencies, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy, Porsche, Tesla, VW

Bull or Bear?  and European Nuclear Power Plant Problems

The weekly chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past few years shows a massive rising wedge formation, which has severe bearish implications should the price action break below the lower limit of this pattern.  Given the easy money policy in the US and other parts of the world, a certain amount of skepticism of the bearish implications is warranted.  However, the merit of this pattern is supported by a negative momentum divergence over the same period.

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01Oct/12

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

End of Q3
Now will there be a final spurt in Q4 2012?

We had the privilege to visit with some of Germany’s top corporate managements last week in Munich, plus get a glimpse at the Oktoberfest, where we were on a fact-finding mission with clients to assess the state of mind of the German corporate executives and that of the overall German consumer.

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24Sep/12

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – No Inflation?

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

Inflation adjusted gasoline prices in the US have soared in the past four months. The inflation-adjusted price for a gallon of unleaded is up over $0.50 since the end of June and has rarely been higher than current levels.

  • Middle East crises are often associated with major swings in the price of gasoline.
  • Gasoline price spikes also have often occurred prior to an economic downturn.

Middle East instability (e.g. Arab spring) and Middle East tensions (e.g. Iran) are ongoing. Continue reading →

19Sep/12

Morning Market Commentary – European Mega Banks “Big Split”

Banking, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Morning Market Commentary

Discussions have been going on for some time, in Berlin and, most of all, Brussels, to proceed to split up “Mega-Banks”. The European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, Michel Barnier, a former French cabinet minister with snow-white hair, is the most feared of the Brussels commissioners in European financial centers. He is already responsible for more than 30 EU regulations decreeing how banks and other financial market players are to do business in the future.

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17Sep/12

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

The Federal Reserve’s decision on Thursday to proceed with QE3 + was not a surprise to us, albeit for most of the market participants, and equity markets responded accordingly. Volume gains on Thursday and Friday were impressive. Additional follow through early this week is likely. However, news from the Fed came at a time when equity markets already were significantly overbought based on short and intermediate technical indicators. Technical action on Friday was an interesting “tell”. Equity markets moved higher at the open, dropped close to break-even just before the close and closed strong on end-of-day buy orders. Not an impressive follow through!

The weakest three week period of the year starts this week. The period is related to pre-third quarter earnings report news. The next three-week period historically is when negative guidance is most frequently released by corporations and when analysts reduce estimates and recommendations. The frequency of negative guidance since release of second quarter results has been unusually high this year. We see evidence of history to repeat during the next three weeks.

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12Sep/12

Morning Market Commentary – Temporary Euro Relief

Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Morning Market Commentary, Oil, Gas & Energy

“Saved by the bell”  “Temporary Euro Relief”

The Federal Constitutional Court has rejected a petition to stop the ratification of the permanent euro rescue fund, the European Stability Mechanism. The decision clears the way for the ESM to go into effect. In a historically significant signal for the Euro rescue, the German Federal Constitutional Court on Wednesday ruled there are no grounds to stop the country from ratifying the European Stability Mechanism, the permanent euro bailout fund. However, the justices expressed some reservations.

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10Sep/12

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – Russia’s “Nukes of Hazard”

Automotive, Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Peugeot, Technology, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

Weekly Investment Conclusion:

Downside risk exceeds upside potential in equity markets during the next six weeks.The breakout by the S&P 500 Index last week implies that depth of the downside risk is less than previous. Selected seasonal trades continue on the upside (gold, energy, software) and downside (transportation). However, many of these seasonal trades reach the end of their period of seasonal strength this month. September is a month of transition.

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04Sep/12

Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts

Commodities, Currencies, Gold & Precious Metals, Metals, Oil, Gas & Energy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

So Mr. Bernanke, Ready for a run down Corbett’s Couloir?

Following on from last week’s peak of the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s closely watched speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, markets widely believe that further quantitative easing (QE) is now on the cards for the central bank’s next meeting on September 13th and 14th.

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