Global light vehicle markets
+2% in January
+3% in FY16E
Category Archives: Honda
Global Automotive Demand Atlas November 2015 edition
In October, global light vehicle sales increased 5.1% yoy to 7.62m, after 2.9% in September, resulting in a 1.5% increase to 73.26m YTD. LMC Automotive (LMCA) calculate that underlying demand continued to strengthen in October, with a SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) of 92.4m units/year, up 4.0% from 88.8m in September, resulting in a YTD SAAR of 88.2m, up less than 1% from FY14’s 87.4m. The recovery of the October SAAR to levels last seen in December (92.1m) and January (89.4m), is due to a strong recovery in China, supported by continuing strong performances in the US and Western Europe.
June 2015 Global Automotive Demand Atlas
In May, global light vehicle sales declined 1.4% yoy to 7.33m, after a 1.6% increase in April, resulting in a 1.1% increase to 36.79m YTD. LMC Automotive (LMCA) calculate that in May the SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) was 87.0m, units/year, down from 88.4m in April and well below January’s 89.4m, and 88.0m YTD.
The global LV sales that have been stable so far during 2015 are considerably weaker than a surprisingly strong December SAAR of 92.1m/year, confirming the suspicion that the latter was due to year-end marketing pushes in key markets.
For FY15E, we expect a global LV market of 89.0m, implying an increase by 1.7% or 1.5m. This is a downgrade from the previous forecast of 89.2m and an implied increase by 1.9% or 1.7m. The growth rate is thus expected to more than halve in 2015E, from 3.7% in FY14 and 4.0% in FY13.
Global Automotive Demand Atlas, May 2015 edition
For FY15E, we expect a global LV market of 89.2m, implying an increase by 1.9% or 1.7m. The growth rate is thus expected to almost halve in 2015E, from 3.7% in FY14 and 4.0% in FY13.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
If the current slow GDP trend continues, and all signs we see point to this, then the level of earnings for the S&P 500 could be the lowest seen in two years. Q1. We are convinced by the initial data that this year’s Q2 will not be nearly as strong; we maintain our 2015 forecast for +2.2% GDP growth. It is time to make a few portfolio adjustments.
011415 – CGI Global Automotive Demand Atlas
01 14 2015 CGI – GADA – January 2015 edition
Automotive Analyst Sabine Blumel reviews global automotive demand by country.
080114 – CGI Global Automotive Demand Atlas August/September
09 01 2014 CGI – GADA – August-September edition
Automotive Analyst Sabine Blumel analyzes global automotive demand trends.
053014 – CGI Global Automotive Demand Atlas, May
05 30 2014 CGI – GADA – May 2014 edition
Analyst Sabine Blumel reviews Global Automotive Demand by major market globally. SAAR revised down slightly due to the worsening outlook in a number of emerging markets,the FY14E forecast is a 3.5% increase to some 87.3m; this implies a deceleration from last year’s restated +3.9% growth to 84.36m.
Global Automotive Demand Atlas – April edition
In March, the global light vehicle markets declined 1.5% yoy to 7.96m units, after having declined 6.2% yoy in February, resulting in a 1.6% yoy increase in YTD, according to LMC Automotive. The SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) of sales was 81.26m units/year, 2.0% higher than February’s 79.68m and 5.4% down from a record 85.91m in January. YTD, the SAAR was 82.83m, 2.3% higher than FY12’s 81.00m. In FY13E, the global LVs markets are expected to grow 2.8% to 83.2m, which implies a considerable deceleration from last year’s 5.3% and is in line with our previous forecast. (See GADA March 2013 edition of April 1st, 2013.) From 2014 onwards, the markets are expected to accelerate again and to grow by almost 7% p.a. in 2014E and 2015E.
Global Automotive Demand Atlas – February edition
In January, the global light vehicle markets grew 12.0% yoy, after having advanced 1.3% yoy in December and 5.2% to 80.89m in FY12, according to LMC Automotive. The SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) of sales hit a record level of 85.91m units/year in January, 4.4% higher than December’s 82.31m. In FY13E, the global LVs markets are expected to decelerate sharply and grow just 2.7% to 83.0m, in line with our previous forecast. (See GADA January 2013 edition of January 23rd, 2013.)
Morning Market Commentary – No sell signals yet NDX;AAPL;Currency Musings;Global Automakers
We continue to see one good investment solution to the problem of global currency wars: Investors should continue to buy Gold.
We have been recommending for 3 years to “sell/short” the French OEM’s and also Fiat, in Italy, which in retrospect clearly was an alpha generating call for investors over the entire time period.
Given recent macro-dynamic changes, in monetary policies, impacting currency markets around the world, namely the Yen weakening substantially versus most currencies, particularly the US$, the EURO, but also mostly against the Korean Won, we have become bullish in September 2012 on Japanese stocks, calling for a major rise in the Nikkei, and implicitly seeing a bullish case in favor of Japanese car companies.
Global Automotive Valuations – September 2012 Edition
– Europe, US, Japan, Korea & India OEMs Valuations
– Global Truck Manufactures Valuations
Global Automotive Demand Atlas – September 2012 edition
- US LV Sales
- Western Europe Car Market – Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK
- Japan pc market
- China LV market
- Brazil pc market
- Russia LV market
- Demand trend for trucks – US, Europe, Japan