In October, global light vehicle sales increased 5.1% yoy to 7.62m, after 2.9% in September, resulting in a 1.5% increase to 73.26m YTD. LMC Automotive (LMCA) calculate that underlying demand continued to strengthen in October, with a SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) of 92.4m units/year, up 4.0% from 88.8m in September, resulting in a YTD SAAR of 88.2m, up less than 1% from FY14’s 87.4m. The recovery of the October SAAR to levels last seen in December (92.1m) and January (89.4m), is due to a strong recovery in China, supported by continuing strong performances in the US and Western Europe.
Category Archives: Porsche
Global Automotive Demand Atlas, May 2015 edition
For FY15E, we expect a global LV market of 89.2m, implying an increase by 1.9% or 1.7m. The growth rate is thus expected to almost halve in 2015E, from 3.7% in FY14 and 4.0% in FY13.
011415 – CGI Global Automotive Demand Atlas
01 14 2015 CGI – GADA – January 2015 edition
Automotive Analyst Sabine Blumel reviews global automotive demand by country.
112414 – CGI November Global Automotive Demand Atlas
11 24 2014 CGI – GADA – November edition
Senior Automotive Analyst Sabine Blumel analyzes Global Automotive Demand.
080114 – CGI Global Automotive Demand Atlas August/September
09 01 2014 CGI – GADA – August-September edition
Automotive Analyst Sabine Blumel analyzes global automotive demand trends.
053014 – CGI Global Automotive Demand Atlas, May
05 30 2014 CGI – GADA – May 2014 edition
Analyst Sabine Blumel reviews Global Automotive Demand by major market globally. SAAR revised down slightly due to the worsening outlook in a number of emerging markets,the FY14E forecast is a 3.5% increase to some 87.3m; this implies a deceleration from last year’s restated +3.9% growth to 84.36m.
Global Automotive Demand Atlas – April edition
In March, the global light vehicle markets declined 1.5% yoy to 7.96m units, after having declined 6.2% yoy in February, resulting in a 1.6% yoy increase in YTD, according to LMC Automotive. The SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) of sales was 81.26m units/year, 2.0% higher than February’s 79.68m and 5.4% down from a record 85.91m in January. YTD, the SAAR was 82.83m, 2.3% higher than FY12’s 81.00m. In FY13E, the global LVs markets are expected to grow 2.8% to 83.2m, which implies a considerable deceleration from last year’s 5.3% and is in line with our previous forecast. (See GADA March 2013 edition of April 1st, 2013.) From 2014 onwards, the markets are expected to accelerate again and to grow by almost 7% p.a. in 2014E and 2015E.
Global Automotive Demand Atlas – February edition
In January, the global light vehicle markets grew 12.0% yoy, after having advanced 1.3% yoy in December and 5.2% to 80.89m in FY12, according to LMC Automotive. The SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) of sales hit a record level of 85.91m units/year in January, 4.4% higher than December’s 82.31m. In FY13E, the global LVs markets are expected to decelerate sharply and grow just 2.7% to 83.0m, in line with our previous forecast. (See GADA January 2013 edition of January 23rd, 2013.)
Global Automotive Demand Atlas January 2013 edition
In December, the global light vehicle markets grew 1.3% yoy, after having advanced 4.3% in November, resulting in a 5.2% increase to 80.89m in FY12, according to LMC Automotive. The SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) of sales declined somewhat to 82.31m units/year in December, from 83.03m units/year in November, though was better than in October and September. In 2013E, the global LVs markets are expected to decelerate sharply and grow just 2.3% to 82.73m, in line with our previous forecast. (See GADA December 2012 edition of December 19th, 2012.) Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary – Bull or Bear?
Bull or Bear? and European Nuclear Power Plant Problems
The weekly chart below of the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past few years shows a massive rising wedge formation, which has severe bearish implications should the price action break below the lower limit of this pattern. Given the easy money policy in the US and other parts of the world, a certain amount of skepticism of the bearish implications is warranted. However, the merit of this pattern is supported by a negative momentum divergence over the same period.
Global Automotive Valuations – September 2012 Edition
– Europe, US, Japan, Korea & India OEMs Valuations
– Global Truck Manufactures Valuations
Morning Market Commentary -Technical Market Observations
Technical Market Observations & Babbage
The weakest 3-week period of the year for North American equity markets is from September 16th to October 9th. The S&P 500 has dropped an average of 2.5% during this period. The TSE Composite Index has dropped an average of 4.0% per period. The weakness is related to negative guidance (earnings confession season) and analyst estimate reductions/downgrades during this period prior to release of third quarter results.
2012 so far:……
Porsche-VW Merger Progresses
VW’s extraordinary general meeting (Dec. 3rd) prepared the ground for two important steps in the two-year multi-stage merger with Porsche SE: VW’s acquisition of 49.9% of Porsche AG for EUR 3.9bn cash (that took place on Dec. 7th) and a EUR 4bn capital increase in VW preferred share capital in 1H10.
Western Europe passenger car market– July 2009 update
Car market is set for an extended V-shaped recession. Our baseline scenario of an 11.7% correction to 11.68m in 2010 is based on the assumption that the schemes in Italy and France will be extended into part of 2010, the German scheme will expire at year-end as planned, and that car manufacturers will continue to aggressively discount.