In May, global light vehicle sales declined 1.4% yoy to 7.33m, after a 1.6% increase in April, resulting in a 1.1% increase to 36.79m YTD. LMC Automotive (LMCA) calculate that in May the SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualized rate) was 87.0m, units/year, down from 88.4m in April and well below January’s 89.4m, and 88.0m YTD.
The global LV sales that have been stable so far during 2015 are considerably weaker than a surprisingly strong December SAAR of 92.1m/year, confirming the suspicion that the latter was due to year-end marketing pushes in key markets.
For FY15E, we expect a global LV market of 89.0m, implying an increase by 1.7% or 1.5m. This is a downgrade from the previous forecast of 89.2m and an implied increase by 1.9% or 1.7m. The growth rate is thus expected to more than halve in 2015E, from 3.7% in FY14 and 4.0% in FY13.