Daimler – 2Q/1H09E preview & results tables and guidance

After an expected EUR 2.48 loss/share in FY09E, we expect Daimler to return to profit in 2010E (EUR 0.84 EPS): MBC’s return to profitability should not be affected by the expiry of incentive programmes and trucks should benefit from restructuring as demand stabilises at low level. At price revenue of 0.39x (2009E) Daimler shares are valued at a 20% discount to the average 10-year high (0.44x) and a 55% premium to the average 10-year low (0.25x). (See pp.5-7.)

Continue reading


Peugeot – 1H09E preview

We have upgraded our FY09 estimate to a EUR 1.59bn group operating loss (vs. EUR 1.71bn previously) following the new guidance for Faurecia. We confirm our estimate that the auto division will incur a EUR 1.75bn operating loss on a 11.5% decline in sales (fully cons. comps.). At price revenue of 0.10x (2009E), Peugeot shares are valued at a 27% discount to the avg. 10-year low. (See pp 4-5.)

Continue reading


Western Europe passenger car market– July 2009 update

Car market is set for an extended V-shaped recession.  Our baseline scenario of an 11.7% correction to 11.68m in 2010 is based on the assumption that the schemes in Italy and France will be extended into part of 2010, the German scheme will expire at year-end as planned, and that car manufacturers will continue to aggressively discount.

Continue reading