Category Archives: Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Global Equities Strategy Update
As long as those issues weigh on investors’ minds, we see it hard for global equities markets and commodities to rise from current levels.
Global Equities Strategy Update
All in all, given the rosy forecasters needing to sober up a bit and revise forecast down for the next 2 – 3 years, we do not see the FED likely to continue to tighten its monetary stance to keep inflation in check, which would tighten global financial conditions and could trigger further emerging-market capital outflows and currency depreciation, and implicitly a prolonged USD appreciation, which neither the US policymakers nor the consumer
Global Equities Strategy Update
We now are expecting for the global economy to expand 3.6% in 2018, which, if confirmed, would represent the strongest expansion in seven years.
Fixed Income & Currencies Strategy Update
Q3 global growth likely slowed as trade war fears intensify, and following Q2’s strong showing. A preliminary Q3 GDP estimate for the global economy put y-o-y growth at 3.3%
Weekly Equities Strategy Update
Investors are facing too many fast changing unknowns, such as an all-time low 3.7% US unemployment, globally slowing (and most likely more downward adjustments and revisions of US and EU GDP growth rates {a phenomenon not rarely seen post political elections}), and likely an unsustainable US GDP rate in the 2.7% to 3.7% range, besides still measured inflation (which we continue to forecast for 2019) however, which the Federal Reserve tries to fight with another December likely rate cut.
Weekly Equities Strategy Update
We see the complaisance for US equities and EPS too high, particularly as analysts and strategists continue to be “late-to-the-plate” on adjusting EPS for the latest swings in the USD. With the USD moving from 88 – 96 within just 5 months, now there is too little recognition by analysts and investors for that embedded USD strength weighing on Q3 and Q4 EPS, which we estimate need to be adjusted due to current USD temporary strength by at least -4 to -6 cents from current full year consensus of 154.
Weekly Currencies & Fixed Income Strategy Update
The USD continued to show short-term momentum signs of rolling over after entering its seasonal period of weakness at the beginning of July
Weekly Equities Strategy Update
We still reommend that investors should reevaluate their current holdings, and pay close attention to the seasonal forces that likely will come into play in the short term. Seasonally, the next period of strength for US, EU and Asian equities comes into play in the month of October.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
US economic focuses this week are on the FOMC announcement on the Fed Fund rate on Wednesday and the July Employment report on Friday. We think for the coming weeks, yields for the 10-Year are capped at the flag’s implied target of 3.14%, the highest level since mid-2011, implying a much faster pace of tightening, how might that affect equities?
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
Technical pressures were most prominent in late trading on Friday. Although global equity markets already have reached intermediate oversold levels, they have yet to
show signs of bottoming.
Global Fixed Income Strategy Update
Seasonally, April is the last strong month for equity benchmarks, before the “Sell
in May & Go away” period of seasonal weakness for equities occurs,
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
Momentum indicators are hinting of further weakness ahead, investors should
get ready for wild swings in this index, particularly this coming week, and
beyond.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
Technical pressures were most prominent in late trading on Friday. Although global equity markets already have reached intermediate oversold levels, they have yet to
show signs of bottoming.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
Y-t-d, $9.8Bn has flowed into tech stocks, and $7.3Bn into financials, while $41Bn
has flowed into emerging markets and $31Bn into Japan. Nevertheless, shares
around the world were stuck on their worst run since November earlier today, as
caution gripped traders in a week in which the Federal Reserve is likely to raise
US interest rates and perhaps signal as many as three more hikes lie in store this
year. A near 1% drop for Europe’s main bourses, amid a flurry of gloomy EU
company news and weaker Wall Street futures meant MSCI’s World index was
down for a fifth day running.
Weekly Currencies Strategy & Charts
In economic news, US retail sales fell for a third straight month in February as
households cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items. The
Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.1% last month against consensus
expectations of a +0.3% monthly rise.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
World equity markets and economic sensitive sectors entered on schedule their
second strongest period of seasonal strength in the year from the beginning of
March to the first week in May. (Strongest period is from mid-October to the first
week in January).
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
We see increasing risks for countries such as China,Japan, Germany, France, and Middle Eastern countries easily reduce parts of their over allocated holdings in US bond investments, in the case where they were not winning any compromises from Washington.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
We see any weakness in European equities to provide investors with a buying
opportunity for a seasonal trade in these sectors into spring. Energy and oil
service stocks began showing technical signs of outperformance late last week,
an encouraging technical sign prior to entering their period of seasonal strength.
FX & Commodities Outlook
Two weeks ago the World Bank has forecast prices to increase modestly in 2018 for
almost all energy and non-energy commodities, with the exception of fertilizers, metals and minerals. The World Bank now sees Oil (WTI) to average $56/barrel in 2018, a 6% rise from $53/barrel in 2017, still significantly below our 2018 price target of $78 for WTI.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
In the US, US economic news this week is quiet. Focus is on FOMC meeting minutes
following appointment of a new Fed chief. Short term political uncertainties remain,
including North Korean “sabre rattling”, struggling NAFTA negotiations, possibly another shut-down of the US government and increased scrutiny by special council on Russia’s influence on the Presidential election。 Continue reading
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
Foreign investors are still tremendously underweight in Japanese equities, both
on a trade weighted and an overall GDP-weighted basis, and we think there is
room for significant further upward momentum in the short-medium term. We
continue advising to use those for long-term asset allocation build-ups to
overweight Japanese equities on a relative basis, as we do see more value in
Japanese equities still at current valuations than in the US.
Weekly Commodities Strategy & Charts
We maintain our global GDP forecasts for 2018 of 3.8%, and hence why we see the price dynamics for commodities in general, but particularly for the oil and energy markets to remain very bullish.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
2017 had been a record year for global equities. And, as we were correctly predicting, foreign equity indices had outperformed the US major indices again substantially, not even currency adjusted, as we also forecasted a decline of the USD by -8% to -10% for 2017. The USD ended up losing -8.5% in 2017.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
We like to reiterate our positive stance on Japanese equities, combined with
partial hedging of the Yen, as the BoJ’s continued easing, and the potential to
drive it lower against major currencies including the US$, Euro, and AUD, are
fundamentally very attractive, and also will benefit from a seasonal period of
strength until end of March (end of fiscal year 2017).
Weekly Commodities Strategy & Charts
We maintain our global GDP forecasts for 2017 of 3.4%, and at 3.8% for 2018, and hence why we see the price dynamics for commodities in general, but particularly for the oil and energy markets to remain very bullish.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy & Charts Update
We continue seeing better value still in Asian and EU stocks, and continue
recommending for investors to overweight equities in both areas relative to US
equities and likely achieve higher returns until year-end 2017 and into Q1 of 2018.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy & Charts Update
Financial markets this week will focus on the US November Employment report to be released on Friday. Short-term political uncertainties remain, including North Korean “sabre rattling” and increased scrutiny by special council on Russia’s influence on the Presidential election.Globally, most of the broadly based equity indices closed at or near all-time highs on Friday.
Weekly Commodities Strategy & Charts
We maintain our global GDP forecasts for 2017 of 3.1%, and at 3.3% for 2018, and hence why we see the price dynamics for commodities in general, but particularly for the oil and energy markets to remain very bullish.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy & Charts Update
We clearly see better value still in Asian and EU stocks, and for investors to overweight in both, relative to US equities and achieve higher returns until year-end 2017.
Weekly Commodities Strategy & Charts
For next year, we continue to see developing economies to lead global growth as higher commodity prices and improving fiscal positions will buttress their growth. In particular, the consolidation of the economic recoveries in Brazil and Russia will shore up economic activity in their regions.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy & Charts Update
Medium-term strategic bias on equities continues to show signs of moving onto a less positive path. The latest sentix survey suggests sentiment and investors’ strategic bias on Eurozone equities has firmed. Sentiment for Chinese and Japanese equities, when looking at medium-term strategic bias readings, is still heading higher.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
We clearly see better value still in Asian and EU stocks, and for investors to
overweight in both, relative to US equities and achieve higher returns until yearend
2017.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
At a market level, investors’ medium-term strategic bias on equities continues to show signs of moving onto a less positive path. The latest sentix survey suggests sentiment and investors’ strategic bias on Eurozone equities has modestly weakened.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
The International Monetary Fund today published a report indicating that The global economic recovery has strengthened financial stability but easy monetary and financial conditions against a backdrop of sluggish inflation is elevating medium-term risks. The IMF upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2017 by 0.1% point to 3.6%, and to 3.7% for 2018, from its April and July outlook, driven by a pickup in trade, investment, and consumer confidence.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
Investors increasingly poles apart on Equities versus Bonds The latest sentix survey
indicates that investors remain resolutely upbeat on equities and deeply downbeat on
bunds. As a result, the sentiment gap between bunds and Eurozone equities is now
large and growing, albeit the gap has yet to reach historic lows.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
In the Americas, Friday’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its
Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 143.4, unchanged from the previous week. Y-o-y the 4-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.83%, down from 3.09% last week and its 11th consecutive week of declines. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.0, also down from the previous week, it’s lowest since March of 2016.
Weekly Equities Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
Uncertainties remain for global financial markets, including assessment of impact of two hurricanes on the US economy (and possibly two more hurricanes approaching the US), North Korean “sabre rattling”, failure by Congress to pass crucial legislation (notably tax reform), etc. Additionally, concerns are rising that a 3rd major hurricane could impact the US with a likely landfall as early as Sunday.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
In the Americas, the US economy is on track to grow at a 3.7% annualized pace in Q3, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now forecast model showed on Friday, following the release of the government’s July payrolls report.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
We have highlighted since May 5th that signs of a seasonal peak in European and
now also for North American equity markets had arrived. The Euro Stoxx 600, the
DAX and the CAC reached their seasonal peaks on May 13th.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
We continue to see the Euro to stabilize further and continue to rise. Safe heaven
currencies like the US$ and like Gold will reverse course and decline. As per our
Q3 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy, the EUR/US$ is on track to rise to our
Q3 end target of 1.18, and our 2017 EUR/USD target of 1.18 – 1.24.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
We continue to see the Euro to stabilize further and continue to rise. Safe heaven
currencies like the US$ and like Gold will reverse course and decline. As per our
Q3 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy, the EUR/US$ is on track to rise to our
Q2 end target of 1.18, and our 2017 EUR/USD target of 1.18 – 1.20.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts
As per our Q2 Global Outlook and Investment Strategy, we have been advising
our clients to reduce exposure to the US$ ($USD) and US equities ($SPX), and
instead increase allocations into US long bonds, namely 10-Year Treasuries
($TNX), and into EU and EM currencies and equities, which form a tactical Asset
allocation call has been spot on so far in the current quarter.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts
Europe is emerging as a region that offers a stable investment environment, just as the fate of other economies is harder to predict. The UK is facing complex divorce
negotiations with the EU. There are significant economic downsides from Brexit for the UK. The damage to the EU economy is probably limited, and the impact might well be positive. Especially if companies and financial institutions decide to move to the continent.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update
World trade flows grew in Q1, continuing a recovery that began in 2H of last year in an indication that the global economy may be set to enjoy a year of stronger growth. World trade flows grew at the slowest pace since the financial crisis in 2016 as a whole, but there are signs 2017 will mark a rebound.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts
We are seeing increasing signs of a very similar credit bubble in the US as in 2006/2007, and investors should consequently diversify risks by re-allocating more assets outside of the US equities and credit markets.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts
In the Americas, US retail sales and CPI data released on Friday gave further confirmation that the US economy is slowing.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Since March of last year, we also started to see increasing macro evidence that
the Euro area was going to be a more stable, secure and reliable place to invest
in than the UK and US, but our call fell mostly on deaf ears until 2017. Europe has
emerged once again as a region that offers a stable political and macro economic
environment, just as the fate of other economies is harder to predict.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
As per our Q2 Global Outlook and Investment Strategy, we have been advising
our clients to reduce exposure to the US$ ($USD) and US equities ($SPX), and
instead increase allocations into US long bonds, namely 10-Year Treasuries
($TNX), and into EU and EM currencies and equities, which form a tactical Asset
allocation call has been spot on so far in the current quarter.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
We see European stocks will likely rally for another short period, until they reach the zenith of annual dividends paid out in mid-May. We recommend for investors to start reducing equity positions into the last rally before the summer, as we are forecasting for a -12% to -15% decline in European and US stocks to materialize once the period of seasonal strength for this asset class will pivot into their strongest period of seasonal weakness from May to October.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Headline prices in the US, UK and Europe are already at or above 2%. At the same time, seven central banks globally are still running negative interest rate policy (NIRP), while aggregate global quantitative easing continues to expand at breakneck speed. Looking ahead, we think central bank liquidity, the major factor that helped support risky assets during the post-crisis era, might peak by early 2018.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Looking ahead, we think central bank liquidity, the major factor that helped
support risky assets during the post-crisis era, might peak by early 2018.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Given the AHCA defeat last Friday, financial markets have to re-assess reality versus wishful thinking. As we had been writing for the past 5 weeks, US assets (US$ and US equities) had been very overbought, and had failed to move towards new highs, and double tops had been put in place. We see Friday’s equity markets’ reversal as a major catalyst for trend change, and the catalyst for investors to focus on major asset re-allocation thinking.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) equities remains closely
linked with views on commodities. It is notable then that optimism on
commodities as a grouping has been tempered in the past month, even as EM
sentiment has headed higher.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
We continue recommending for investors to use the current US$ strength and
diversify into the seasonally better performing European and EM equities. As we
have written in the past 3 months, we see a stronger case in favor of higher
European allocations until mid May.
Weekly Market Commentary & charts
We continue recommending for investors to use the current US$ strength and
diversify into the seasonally better performing European and EM equities. As we
have written in the past 3 months, we see a stronger case in favor of higher
European allocations until mid May.
Weekly Commentary & Charts
We continue recommending for investors to use the current US$ strength and
diversify into the seasonally better performing European and EM equities. As we
have written in the past 3 months, we see a stronger case in favor of higher
European allocations until mid May. We believe that the political and sovereign
tail risks for Europe, particularly with respect to potential Eurozone
disintegration, are fully priced in the weak Euro and European equities.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
AUD and CAD turn higher, USD weakness is gaining breadth.
Commodities break to the upside (Oil, Copper, Steel, Platinum, Palladium).
Emerging Market equities break out to the upside (Brazil; India; China).
Stock/Bond ratio ready to break higher.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Continue to Sell/short US$ against commodities based currencies like
BRL, AUD, CAD, but also against the EUR
Overweight US 10 Year Treasuries
Continue to Overweight Commodities, Energy, metals
Overweight foreign stocks short and medium term, namely European
(German, French, Spanish, Dutch), Canadian, Japanese, Chinese, Russian
and Brazilian equities
Underweight US & UK equities
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Investors are now clearly waiting for concrete economic policies from the Trump administration, with both the upward move in US yields and the US$ losing some momentum. Furthermore, we think there is an increasing chance that global risk sentiment could be affected by a possible standoff between China and the US. Longer term, we could see risks rise to a global recovery from more economic protectionism.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The US$, (and all US$ priced and related asset classes like US equities and US
treasuries, commodities) are simply overbought, overheld, overvalued and
overdue for a correction. We see better value in foreign equity markets,
particularly as Japanese, Chinese and European equities are in the strongest
period of seasonal strength until end of April.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
We are recommending for investors to hold seasonally attractive equity positions that remain in an intermediate uptrend and continue to outperform the S&P 500
Index (e.g. precious metals, technology, selected Canadian energy, DIS, UNH,
AAPL, etc.). Profit taking in other positions is appropriate. As highlighted in our
Fixed Income commentary, year-end portfolio adjustments continue, most
notably the switch to fixed income securities from equities.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
2017 seems for most an inherently tricky year to forecast, since the political shift in
power creates so many unknowns. Policy implementation could play a big role in
shaping economic output and corporate profitability, and both of these factors matter
immensely to stock performance.
Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
We believe that the global financials sector is likely to see a massive comeback
in 2017, as a rising rate environment combined with attractive valuations a
positioning, in the financials sector could be the perfect hedge against further
interest rate hikes in the portfolio.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
In the US, the strong US$ is having continued negative affects on the US economy in many different ways. The Census Bureau published its advanced look at international trade in the US and the result showed the deficit widened to $62.0 BN from $56.5 BN previous. Continue reading
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The very reliable long-term equity/bond model favor bonds over equities, therefore, investors should continue to overweigh their portfolios with bonds over stocks for safety and better return. Can investors’ temporary blindness become the “trumping” reason to go long bonds after the inherent correction of the 10Year treasury yields moving to our 2.35% yield target? We think so.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Economic and political focus this week is on results of the election on Tuesday. Other
economic reports this week are not expected to be market movers.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Economic focus in the US next week is on the FOMC meeting. Consensus is that the
Fed Fund rate will remain at 0.25%-0. 50%, but the Federal Reserve will give a clear
signal about increasing the Fed Fund rate by 0.25% at its December meeting. Other US economic reports are expected to confirm that the US economy is growing at a slow but steady rate.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The time to buy into capital goods, mining, and railroad and energy stocks has never been better than right now.We continue recommending for investors to buy commodities such as crude oil and gold.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Again, the way we continue seeing it, the macro climate in both the US and most
of the G-10 countries is still fading, global trade still depressed, and capacity
global utilization still well under 70%, we see no rational reason as to why the
FED should raise rates this year, or in 2017.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The period of uncertainty for world equity markets continues. Many equity markets,
commodities and primary sectors have returned to the top of their trading range
previously reached in mid-July. Establishment of another intermediate uptrend is
unlikely prior to the US Presidential election on November 8th. Prospects following the Presidential election are positive. Seasonal influences begin to change in the month of October.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The period of uncertainty for world equity markets continues. Many equity markets,
commodities and primary sectors have returned to the top of their trading range
previously reached in mid-July. Establishment of another intermediate uptrend is
unlikely prior to the US Presidential election on November 8th.Prospects following the Presidential election are positive.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Slower than consensus economic news from the US, Japan, Brazil and smaller parts of Europe last week proved to be good news for markets. Additionally, as we were
expecting, the Federal Reserve decision to maintain the Fed Fund rate at .25%-0.50% on Wednesday afternoon boosted equity, commodity and bond prices. Economic news this week is expected to confirm an additional slowdown in US economic growth in Q3.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The period of increased volatility and increasing weakness for world equity
markets continues until the end of October.
Strategy Update
What are we likely to see in the aftermath of Brexit?
The many implications for monetary policy can all be distilled down to one simple
thought: continued accommodative monetary policy by central banks globally.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Pessimism remains the dominant theme on Financials, with sentiment readings on
Insurance hitting a two-year low and Banks firmly entrenched at the low-end of their
historic sentiment range versus the market.
Morning Commentary & Charts Memorial Day Thoughts
This year’s Memorial Day, Americans are enjoying “most memorable low gas prices” for the start of the summer driving season in over a decade, with the weighted average price of regular gas is $2.30 per gallon, -17% lower than this time last year.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
We are advising investors to buy US 10-Year and 30-year treasuries at current
levels, as we do expect the traditional “Sell in May & Go Away” for equities to
have a significant affect in 2016.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Global equities have passed their peak of annual seasonal strength on May 11th,
we are advising investors to aggressively sell Chinese, Japanese, US and EU
equities immediately, as many macro-economic, geo-political and political risks
will likely rise over the next 2 – 4 months into the summer.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Global equities have reached their peak of annual seasonal strength in late April/mid May, we are advising investors to aggressively sell Chinese, Japanese, US and EU equities immediately, as many macro-economic, geo-political and political risks will likely rise over the next 2 – 4 months into the summer.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Now that global equities have reached their peak of annual seasonal strength in
late April/mid May, we are advising investors to be aggressively selling Chinese,
Japanese, US and EU equities, as many macro-economic, earnings outlook and
geo-political risks will rise over the next 2 – 4 months into the summer.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Economic focus this week is on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Consensus is that the Federal Reserve will maintain the Fed Fund Rate at 0.25-0.50%. However, the bond market began to respond last week to anticipation of message by the Fed that it plans to increase the Fed Fund rate soon based on incremental evidence that slow US economic growth is accelerating.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Financial leaders from the G-20 nations said on Friday they were heartened by a recent recovery in financial markets, but warned that global growth was “modest and uneven” and threatened by weakness in commodities-based economies
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Global data: “Weak foreign economic conditions, a persistently high exchange value of the US$ and tighter financial conditions—will continue to restrain US economic growth for a time and thus collectively imply a temporarily low level for the neutral rate of interest.” Central bank limit: “financial market turbulence provided an important reminder that the ability of central banks to offset the effects of adverse economic shocks might be limited, particularly by the low level of policy interest rates in most advanced economies.”
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
According to the latest sentix investors’ survey, markets are less nervous on Chinese equities from a medium-term strategic perspective in recent weeks, albeit survey readings remain well down on twelve-month highs. This chimes with a wider revival in sentiment towards Emerging Equity Markets as an asset class, as well as a more upbeat view among survey participants on the outlook for Commodities.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
In the US, all eyes will be on this weeks’ FOMC meeting. We are not expecting for the FED to make a change to the current rates. Nevertheless, we see the Federal Reserve is the scariest of all Central Banks. Particularly, as they failed to adequately gauge US macro shifts and reacted with incorrect policy decisions subsequently.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The global economy is heading for a storm as faith in policymakers dwindles, according to a stark warning from one of the world’s most respected financial institutions. The uneasy calm in financial markets last year has given way to turbulence, the Bank for International Settlements, known as the central bank for the world’s central banks, said in its latest quarterly report
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Over in the US, Q4 GDP was marked up slightly to 1%, but that was mainly because of a bigger stockpiling of inventories that could weigh on the economy in early 2016, and reflects a slowdown in growth that set in during the waning months of 2015. The US grew 2.4% for the second year in a row, failing to reach 3% for the 10th straight year. We see the outlook for 2016 deteriorating further. Economists predict the US will stick to its current rate of growth, held in check by a strong dollar, weak exports and slack business investment. We maintain our 2016 target of 1.6% for the US GDP.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
We stand firmly to our point that the December FED rate hike was a policy mistake proven by the increasing volatility and deterioration in asset prices in the world since. Hence why we do not expect the FED to continue in 2016 with further tightening, on the contrary, as we do expect the US economy to show a negative GDP print in either the current quarter, possibly also in Q2, we are anticipating for the FED to resume its QE program later in 2016.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Global credit analysis has been a much better gauge for financial market analysis for the past 4 decades. Although our firm’s balance of experience and expertise is stemming from equity markets and products, we have been applying a more asset class agnostic research mantra, being totally currency and financial asset category agnostic. Over the past 13 years in particular, we have taken more and more lead from the credit side, and it has helped us and our clients to be ahead of the herd, particularly when it comes to global asset allocation recommendations and making clear alpha choices.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
The OECD today announced it sees evidence of further slowdown as its gauges of future economic activity, with its composite leading indicator for its 34 members, fell to 99.7 from 99.8 in December and continue to point to slowdowns in the US, the UK and Russia, however recent readings show steady growth in the Eurozone, and an acceleration in India.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Economic focuses this week are on the January ISM report on Monday and the January US and Canadian employment reports on Friday. Technical signs of a bottom and start of an intermediate uptrend in most equity indices, commodities and sectors appeared last week. However, as anticipated, volatility remains high, but declining: another technical sign of improving intermediate prospects.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Globally, we are expecting for mixed economic news this week. In the US (US Consumer confidence, New home sales, Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment). Focus is on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. While near-term sentiment towards global equity indices is running at modestly positive levels, the latest sentix survey suggests investors remain deeply cautious on developed and emerging markets from a medium-term strategic perspective.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
When it comes to 2015 and our predictions, we were heavily countered by a lot of investors in the US & the UK with disbelief, as we had been most concerned about an increasing slowdown in GDP economic activities in both China and the US. Even as we speak, this morning the IMF downgraded global GDP expectations for 2016 from 3.6% to now a reduced 3.4%. We have 2.9% as a forecast for 2016, and believe that there will be continued concern by financial market participants throughout the 1H of 2016, whether this number can be met.