Category Archives: Strategy

14Oct/14

101414 – CGI Weekly Market Commentary and Technical View: WTI risk to $78

Strategy, Technical, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts, , ,

101414 CGI Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts US equities in danger, $BKX may break down substantially, $WTIC risks towards $78.

Strategist Carlo Besenius presents his weekly technical view of equity markets, sectors, currencies, commodities, and rates.

21Aug/14

08182014 – CGI Morning Market Commentary and Weekly Chart

Strategy, Weekly Market Commentary & Charts

081814 CGI Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts 10-Y gov bonds still outperforming, US & European equities to continue their correction, EM steady outperforming

 

Global Strategist Carlo Besenius discusses the outlook for the Euro and European Equity Markets.The recent under-performance of equities in the Eurozone relative to those in the US has been more pronounced than might have been expected based on the size of the  fall in the Euro against the US$. Admittedly, we forecast the Euro to strengthen to about  EUR/US$ 1.3750 from the current EUR/US$ 1.34 levels. But we do not think this will  preclude Eurozone equities from recovering lost ground.

05Jun/14

060514 – CGI Morning Market Commentary: USD/EUR, Euro rates

Currencies, Metals, Strategy, , , , , ,

060514 CGI Morning Market Commentary Buy Euro, Sell US$, Buy Bonds, Sell select equities’ indices into period of seasonal weakness

Global Strategist Carlo Besenius looks at the Euro/$USD rate in light of the recent moves by the ECB to lower rates, and the dynamics of the US trade deficit. We keep our year end forecast of $1.42.  Equity indices are entering their period of seasonal weakness.

04Jun/14

140604 – The Perfect Storm

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CGI 140604 Strategy Update:

Global Strategist Steve Gluckstein takes an in depth look at the debate over inflation has become increasingly polarized—perhaps due
partially to the distortive impact of accommodative monetary policy by the world’s leading central banks during the past five years. Nonetheless, when looking out over the distant horizon 24-30 months from now we see several factors coalescing into a
“perfect storm” that will likely propel inflation materially higher and cause significant challenges for central bank monetary policy three to five years from now.Rising deficits, resurgent wage growth and rising money velocity should all re-emerge as potent inflationary economic forces.

02Jun/14

060214 – CGI Global Markets Commentary and Weekly Charts

Strategy, ,

060214 CGI Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts Buy 10 Y treasuries, Sell equities in US and UK,

Carlo Besenius explains his current views on the global markets. Equity markets are entering a period of increased volatility during the summer months, as investors reduce exposure in favor of bonds. The compression of yields is a global phenomenon. Expect to see further compression of European periphery yields in the coming months

02Jun/14

053014 – European Elections – Plus ca Change

Strategy,

053014 – CGI European Strategy- Plus ca change

Trish Twining reviews the impact of the European Parliamentary Elections across Europe. While the Euro-skeptics won 143 streets, the headlines imply greater impact than reality at present. Fragmentation between parties is significant, largely playing to their home audience. More significant is the need for both individual Member States and the EU to focus on jobs growth and restarting the economic engine. Infrastructure initiatives already in process by the European Commission and the European Investment Bank (EIB) to stimulate public private partnerships (PPP’s) may provide interesting opportunities.

04Apr/13

Strategy Update – Return of the Virtuous Cycle

Strategy

Other than in wistful missives about missed public policy opportunities, economists have had little reason to speak of the virtuous circle since 2007. Yet we suspect that it will creep back into the lexicon of the financial media shortly. But if we’ve heard little of the virtuous circle, we’ve heard plenty from its evil twin, the vicious circle. Its offspring (housing collapse, rising unemployment, falling stock prices, crisis of confidence and credit crisis) were all key components of the last recession and helped contribute to the near collapse of our financial system. Yet they have all steadied and apparently found a bottom. The best leading indicator of the group, stock prices, has been climbing for four years. Credit for both households and business has started to flow more freely, even discounting for the Fed’s pump priming. While it sounds positive, the lingering concern nagging at many investors seems to be “is this all there is?” Are we stuck in the so-called “new normal” of slow growth that is well below the economy’s potential…or worse, facing a consumer spending slowdown that some fear could pull the economy back into recession?

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08Feb/13

Global Markets Strategy & Equities Outlook – Bullish on Japan & China

Allianz, ArcelorMittal, Banking, BMW, Commodities, Currencies, EADS, FORD, Gold & Precious Metals, Hyundai, Industrial Manufacturing, Jabil, MAN, Mitsubishi, Nestle, Oil, Gas & Energy, SAP, Seimens, Sony, Strategy, UBS, Unilever, Utilities, VW

As you know we turned very bullish on Japan and China in September 2012, and have been advising to overweight allocations towards the Nikkei and the Shanghai Indices, as we recognized major turning points in those markets due to changes in government leadership and implicitly new and improved stimulus policies going into effect as of Q4 2012.

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