Headline prices in the US, UK and Europe are already at or above 2%. At the same time, seven central banks globally are still running negative interest rate policy (NIRP), while aggregate global quantitative easing continues to expand at breakneck speed. Looking ahead, we think central bank liquidity, the major factor that helped support risky assets during the post-crisis era, might peak by early 2018.
Category Archives: Metals
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Given the AHCA defeat last Friday, financial markets have to re-assess reality versus wishful thinking. As we had been writing for the past 5 weeks, US assets (US$ and US equities) had been very overbought, and had failed to move towards new highs, and double tops had been put in place. We see Friday’s equity markets’ reversal as a major catalyst for trend change, and the catalyst for investors to focus on major asset re-allocation thinking.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) equities remains closely
linked with views on commodities. It is notable then that optimism on
commodities as a grouping has been tempered in the past month, even as EM
sentiment has headed higher.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
AUD and CAD turn higher, USD weakness is gaining breadth.
Commodities break to the upside (Oil, Copper, Steel, Platinum, Palladium).
Emerging Market equities break out to the upside (Brazil; India; China).
Stock/Bond ratio ready to break higher.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Continue to Sell/short US$ against commodities based currencies like
BRL, AUD, CAD, but also against the EUR
Overweight US 10 Year Treasuries
Continue to Overweight Commodities, Energy, metals
Overweight foreign stocks short and medium term, namely European
(German, French, Spanish, Dutch), Canadian, Japanese, Chinese, Russian
and Brazilian equities
Underweight US & UK equities
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
2017 seems for most an inherently tricky year to forecast, since the political shift in
power creates so many unknowns. Policy implementation could play a big role in
shaping economic output and corporate profitability, and both of these factors matter
immensely to stock performance.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Our weekly investment strategy advice for investors is: To wait until the dust settles， following last week’s shock events, which we wee predicting as an immediate consequence to Ms. Yellen’s ill timed, rate rise.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Economic data this week is expected to confirm slowing economic growth in the US. Data will be sufficient to prompt the Fed to increase the Fed Fund rate for the first time in a decade. As indicated earlier, an increase in the Fed Fund rate will set the stage for a significant recovery in North American equity markets over the next three months.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Economic news this week focuses on November Retail Sales. El Nino type weather through this winter is expected to have a positive impact on Industrial Production and the S&P 500 Index (i.e. an extra 3% gain during El Nino winters). The month of December is the strongest month of the year for North American equity indices. However, strength tends to be concentrated during the last two weeks of the month (i.e. Christmas rally period).
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
We are seeing increased technical evidence that world equity markets and most sectors remain in a corrective phase since mid-May. Short and intermediate technical indicators for most equity markets and sectors are oversold but continue to trend down. The latest survey of investors’ sentiment conducted by sentix has revealed that investors’ feel relief after the turn in the Greek debt drama. From an already high level, sentix Sentiment rises once more by over 10 percentage points and signals a party mood. In contrast, commodities command investors’ respect. Here, fears that the whole sector is in a free fall dominate. Meanwhile, the US$ benefits.
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2015 Q3 Global Investment Strategy & Equities Outlook
10-Year US and European Bond yields will turn lower one more time. The US$ will decline further. Oil & Commodities will move higher. Global Equities will correct,
but then recover sharply towards end of Q3 into Q4. EAFE to continue to outperform US equities.
Stocks have the seasonal tendency to outperform bonds from mid-November until the end of March, a trend that we see to continue in 2015. As in prior reports, we do think that the current stagnation-type economic environment, impacting two-thirds of the global economy, namely the US and Europe, and Japan, is going to provoke most long-term investors to conduct a major switch from “negative-return based” bond investments into high-yield equities with stable and defensive cash flow generative outlook.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Economic focus this week in the US is on the FOMC meeting results to be released on Wednesday. Earnings and sales by S&P 500 companies during the next two quarters remain a concern. Intermediate and technical indicators for most equity markets and sectors remain overbought and trending down. Short-term technical indicators (mainly momentum indicators) for most equity markets and sectors are trending up.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Seasonally, rates typically decline during the summer months as investors “de-risk” from equity markets, however, the potential for the Fed to raise rates sometime this year has the market fleeing this asset class, putting some temporary uncertainty into the success of this seasonal phenomena.
Morning Market Commentary
Seasonally, inflationary pressures are the strongest in Q1, attributed to the seasonal rise in commodity prices. Investors should keep in mind though, that there is increasing macro evidence, as today’s disappointing ADP data, whereas the US created 169,000 private- sector jobs in April, after a downwardly revised 175,000 jobs were created in March. Companies with 500 or more employees had the slowest growth, the firm said. The economist consensus is for the US to report 233,000 nonfarm jobs created in April on Friday.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
We are not fearful of a Fed rate hike, as that is typically good for stocks given that it means the economy is in good shape and stocks stay on the uptick for 2-3 years after. Plus, worldwide government bond competition will lead more investors to US Treasuries to keep a lid on rates and thus continue to make stocks look attractive by comparison. Our views for 2015 (as for 2014) of the global investment world differ substantially from consensus, and applied by other investors on Friday. Yet when level heads prevail, however, it may take the market 3 – 4 months, as it has
in the past years, we think that more people will come around to our investment views and conclusions. As such, we believe that this is a buyable dip for US 10-Year government bonds with higher highs on the way for 2015. For now, US bonds are still more attractive to investors than US stocks.
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Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
We believe that the US$ impact is not at all factored in by sell side analysts, and will make for a nasty surprise in the coming quarters in 2015. The price of the long-term bond continues to bump against trend line resistance that has spanned the last 30-years. Should this trend line hold, the long-term treasury bond may succumb to selling pressures following the Fed announcement. International market ETFs including Emerging Markets and European equity market led world equity markets on the upside last week, and we are expecting for that trend to continue over the coming months.
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Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
US Equities are extremely expensive compared to its global peers, and have been overweighed & overheld for a very long time by foreign investors. The fact that foreign ownership of US stocks is at an all-time high, totaling 16% in 2014, the highest in 69 years since such records have been kept, is of additional concern. For 2015, we are advising US investors to increase their foreign holdings, and reduce US equities exposure.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts: 2014 Final Words
The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond ended the year at 2.17%, exactly at our 2014 target price, and down substantially from where it started the year at 3.03%. Despite the fact that the Fed ended its quantitative easing program in October 2014, we do see the long end of the Treasury curve likely to move lower in 2015 on the back of weak global growth, and the fact that “the Fed is boxed in” consequently, and eventually will become more accommodative one more time.
062314 – CGI Morning Market Commentary and Weekly Charts
062314 CGI Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Carlo Besenius provides his weekly strategy outlook and technical review of markets, commodities, and currencies.
060514 – CGI Morning Market Commentary: USD/EUR, Euro rates
Global Strategist Carlo Besenius looks at the Euro/$USD rate in light of the recent moves by the ECB to lower rates, and the dynamics of the US trade deficit. We keep our year end forecast of $1.42. Equity indices are entering their period of seasonal weakness.
052214 – CGI Seasonality Analysis
We review the seasonality factors impacting global debt and equity markets over the summer. Equities are expected to see a period of weakness, with good probability for an increase in volatility mid summer.
Morning Market Commentary – Buy International equities, Energy, Oil
Much higher 10-year rates in 2014. Buy Intl. equities, EAFE, Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Japan over US as EAFE entered period of seasonal strength.
Energy, Oil & Utilities are the only ones that tend to produce higher than seasonal average returns under extreme cold weather conditions.
Morning Market Commentary – Metals, Oil, Buy Intl. Equities
EAFE to continue to outperform US equities, Chinese equities bottoming, Metals, Platinum & Palladium moving higher. Buy Intl. equities, EAFE, Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Japan over US as EAFE entered period of seasonal strength. Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – EAFE cont. to outperform US equities, Oil, Commodities,
Short and intermediate technical indicators for most equity markets and sectors remain overbought. Look for a renewed seasonal buying opportunity in economic sensitive sectors on weakness in the month of January. We continue to recommend to add towards sectors which continue to show seasonal strength such as… Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary – Buy Intl. equities, Germany trade balance
Germany has a trade balance second to none on earth. Germany recorded a trade surplus of EUR 18.10 Bn in November of 2013. Germany is world leader in current account surplus in 2014.
We are expecting for the DAX 30 equities’ outperformance to extend through 2015. EPS expectations should stabilize alongside global GDP growth. We are forecasting DAX EPS FY 2014 to rise by 16% yoy to 760. (Vs. consensus 729) . Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary – Buy into mini global equities’ correction
Short and intermediate technical indicators for most equity markets and sectors are overbought and showing signs of peaking. Midterm US Presidential Cycle years show that US equity markets show an average correction by the S&P 500 Index of 1.7% in the month of January followed by strength into mid-April. History appears to be repeating itself. Look for renewed seasonal buying opportunities in economic sensitive sectors following a brief period of weakness into January.
Our preferred equity markets like Germany, France, Spain, and Japan continue to outperform US benchmarks. We advise clients to add towards those countries’ equities and towards our favorite sectors, which continue to show seasonal strength, such as: …. Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary – $hanghai Index ready for a major breakout, Metals, Silver, WTI, NatGas
China became the world’s biggest trader in goods for the first time last year, overtaking the US for all of 2013 and finishing the year with record trade figures in December. Trade with the rest of Asia and increasing flows with the Middle East represent a shift in power away from the US, still the world’s largest economy.
Chinese imports of crude oil grew by the least in almost a decade in 2013, new government data show, posing a challenge to exporters from the Middle East to Africa who are competing to sell more oil into the world’s second-largest economy.
We are advising clients to allocate new funds towards Chinese equities. As the chart shows, there has been a tug of war between the bulls & bears for over 6 months now, and we believe the $SSEC is ready for a major breakout to the upside in the short term. Our 2014 price target for the $SSEC is 3,000. Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Stocks – Global Stocks enter positive seasonal period, German Stocks to outperform
German Equities are at an all-time high. The DAX 30 Index is +20% ytd, after +29% in 2012. Our CGI Global 50 includes 12 German stocks, of which all are in positive territory for 2013.
We think so, particularly when looking at the anemic bond yields that European, US and Japanese government and corporate bonds are offering. We are seeing but one way for German investors, namely to increase equities investments, albeit late, however not too late to the plate, and invest now in their own equity market. Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – What’s about that US$?
Or research shows the following sectors being attractive for seasonal trades this summer and showing signs of outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index and the TSX Composite Index: Fertilizers, Energy and Gold. Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary & weekly charts SPX rolling over
Weekly Investment Conclusion: We are advising clients to use the temporary seasonal weakness to increase holdings towards select equity strategies, as equities are the better value asset class, versus cash, bonds, alternatives, combined with the lowest downside risk.
For our clients with a shorter term investment perspective, we recommend to take profits in equities sectors with seasonal weakness, as we see evidence of equity markets rolling over temporarily, and for bonds to enter their period of seasonal strength until mid summer.
Morning Market Commentary – Global/US equities sell off confirmed, Energy, Metals entering negative seasonal trend, EADS “buy”
Currently the number of US companies that have reported sales above estimates are at a mere 44.1% based on results released for the first quarter, thus far. The current quarterly revenue beat rate is the third lowest in over 10 years, beaten only by the fourth quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, just as the recession was beginning.
We believe that the actual data, whether it relate to the broad economy, to actual negative currency impacts, or to earnings, fail to catch up to expectations, a correction in forecasts may be in order, the result of which would likely lead to a correction of stock prices as well.
Again, we see more evidence in increasing metrics for investors to brace themselves for a 6% to 10% pullback in major global equities markets, and surely also for the US markets.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – Global Equities running out of steam
This past weekend’s meeting of the G-20 has been described by some as highlighting that there is only minimal coordination between the main economic powers. Japan was not singled out for reprobation. The G-20 and the BoJ have made it very clear to the financial community that Japan has the green light regarding continued quantitative easing and resulting in continued Yen weakness. We expect the US$/Yen 100 level will fall soon, and moving towards our 2013 price target in coming months. Short term, we expect the US$ to run into resistance at the psychologically important US$/Yen 100 level, which it hasn’t crossed since April 2009.
Morning Market Commentary – US$ impact on stocks & Sector rotation, into cyclicals, materials, mining
The Euro has realized rather pronounced declines since the start of February, but recently momentum indicators have diverged from the short-term price action, indicating that selling pressures were abating. The intermediate trend is noted to have changed, but a continuation of this short-term rebound is reasonable as the currency corrects an oversold condition. A retest of the 50-day moving average around 1.32, and even up to 1.3450 is increasingly probable as the currency exits a period of seasonal weakness that concluded at the end of March.
Euro strength has generally coincided with US$ index weakness, often seen as a positive catalyst for equity and commodity prices.
The US$ index is showing signs of rolling over from its recent positive trend. The US$ index is pushing towards its 50-day average as seasonal weakness in the month of April pressures the currency lower.
Morning Market Commentary US$ impact on EPS, EUR/US$ reversal
As per our prior warnings, sell side analysts have been like usual late to the plate with regards to currency adjustments for US companies.
For now, consensus estimates show that first-quarter earnings reports released by major US companies will be sluggish. Consensus earnings estimates for the 30 Dow Jones industrial average companies shows an average (median) gain of only 3.1 per cent on a year-over-year basis.
With 25% of S&P 500 earnings coming out of Europe, and 6% coming from Japan, we think that most sell side analysts are behind the curve on this. The negative impact on first quarter earnings by international companies due to strength in the US$ on a year-over-year basis will be mentioned frequently when first quarter reports are released during the next three weeks. The US$ Index averaged approximately 81.0 in the first quarter of 2013, up from approximately 79.0 in the first quarter last year. At the end of the quarter, the Index was at 83.14 versus 79.00 last year. However, the US$/Yen has fallen by -31.5% since September 2012, which is in line with our forecasts, and this will weigh significantly on EPS for Q1 and will continue to be a negative surprise for analysts throughout 2013, particularly, as we anticipate the US$/Yen to be at 1.12 by year end 2013.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly charts
“Sell in May & Go Away” or is it “Sell in April”, like it was in 2012?
Japanese companies see the continued weakening of the Yen as an opportunity to increase investments abroad, and are buying foreign assets. European companies are generating more than 50% of their earnings from outside of the Eurozone, and for the Eurostoxx 600, about 30% of earnings are coming from emerging markets. Hence why we see better buying opportunities in Japanese and European stocks.
Morning Market Commentary – Natural Gas Breakout
The energy sector was buoyed by a breakout in natural gas prices. Natural gas prices surged by 3.59% to US$ 3.812 mBTU’s after the Energy Information Administration reported that inventories fell by 145bn cubic feet last week, 18.5% below the same level last year. The consensus estimate was for a 137bn cubic-feet fall. Nat Gas prices have risen by over 9% month to date, with the market betting on a tighter supply and demand situation following a cold winter season, signs of a recovery in the US economy, a drop in drilling rigs, growing uses for the fuel, and a shift away from coal-fired plants.
Morning Market Commentary – EU Budgetary
In the past 6 months, we have been advising our clients to increase weightings towards equities, at the expense of reducing weightings in bonds. We repeatedly have reiterated this call, in the face of many other strategists who have called for a major 7% – 10 % correction for equities since late January 2013.
Several short term technical aspects are showing further evidence that this outperformance for equities might continue, well into the seasonal period of weakness starting in May, “Sell in May & Go Away”, when particularly European Balanced Fund managers are switching from particularly high-yielding equities, which are paying their annual dividends (unlike the US and UK corporates which are paying quarterly dividends) from late February – late June. Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – Global Equity Markets
Weekly Investment Conclusion:
Strength in US equity markets last week triggered by surprising strength in economic indicators was unexpected. US equity markets quickly regained short term momentum. Positive psychology related to the Dow Industrials reaching all-time highs also helped. This week, economic data is expected to be positive again and the S&P 500 Index (a more significant US equity index) will have a chance of reaching its all-time high at 1,576.09, despite short and intermediate technical indicators once again have returned to overbought levels.
Selected sectors with favorable seasonality at this time of year remain attractive purchases candidates on weakness. The trigger could be a rollover of the US$ from a highly overbought level. When it happens, and we do think this will happen within days, commodity stocks including metals & mining, energy, coal and steel stocks will come alive. All recorded exceptional gains on Thursday and Friday.
Morning Market Commentary – GDP improvements, US$ Weakening
More support for global equities due to slowly but gradually improving global economic expectations and economic outlook.
GDP in the Euro area as a whole, we think might surprise on the upside and are expecting a +0.2% GDP number for 2013, and +1.0% GDP for 2014, as we are seeing more evidence of government policies in Europe, but also around the world starting to make progress, and hence why we are expecting for global GDP growth to accelerate in 2014, albeit slowly for Europe, the UK, the US, but more rapidly in Japan, China, India, Africa, Brazil, Russia and emerging economies like the Philippines, Thailand, Turkey, Poland. Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary – Venezuela, Europe Top 100, Palladium, Nat Gas
So, whilst we are expecting for volatility in Latin American markets to increase, our favorite markets for investors to increase weightings in equities are: …… Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – Currency Wars Musings
We still see the current US$ temporary strength as a good opportunity for investors to increase equity holding in international companies. The current temporary strength of the US$ and its inverse impact on global commodities prices as a good opportunity for US institutional investors to increase their weightings in foreign equities and commodities, and particularly to those benefiting from a seasonality point of strength, we advise investors to add towards the following equity markets and sectors: …..
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
End of Q3
Now will there be a final spurt in Q4 2012?
We had the privilege to visit with some of Germany’s top corporate managements last week in Munich, plus get a glimpse at the Oktoberfest, where we were on a fact-finding mission with clients to assess the state of mind of the German corporate executives and that of the overall German consumer.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – No Inflation?
Inflation adjusted gasoline prices in the US have soared in the past four months. The inflation-adjusted price for a gallon of unleaded is up over $0.50 since the end of June and has rarely been higher than current levels.
- Middle East crises are often associated with major swings in the price of gasoline.
- Gasoline price spikes also have often occurred prior to an economic downturn.
Middle East instability (e.g. Arab spring) and Middle East tensions (e.g. Iran) are ongoing. Continue reading
Morning Market Commentary – European Mega Banks “Big Split”
Discussions have been going on for some time, in Berlin and, most of all, Brussels, to proceed to split up “Mega-Banks”. The European Commissioner for Internal Market and Services, Michel Barnier, a former French cabinet minister with snow-white hair, is the most feared of the Brussels commissioners in European financial centers. He is already responsible for more than 30 EU regulations decreeing how banks and other financial market players are to do business in the future.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
The Federal Reserve’s decision on Thursday to proceed with QE3 + was not a surprise to us, albeit for most of the market participants, and equity markets responded accordingly. Volume gains on Thursday and Friday were impressive. Additional follow through early this week is likely. However, news from the Fed came at a time when equity markets already were significantly overbought based on short and intermediate technical indicators. Technical action on Friday was an interesting “tell”. Equity markets moved higher at the open, dropped close to break-even just before the close and closed strong on end-of-day buy orders. Not an impressive follow through!
The weakest three week period of the year starts this week. The period is related to pre-third quarter earnings report news. The next three-week period historically is when negative guidance is most frequently released by corporations and when analysts reduce estimates and recommendations. The frequency of negative guidance since release of second quarter results has been unusually high this year. We see evidence of history to repeat during the next three weeks.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – Russia’s “Nukes of Hazard”
Weekly Investment Conclusion:
Downside risk exceeds upside potential in equity markets during the next six weeks.The breakout by the S&P 500 Index last week implies that depth of the downside risk is less than previous. Selected seasonal trades continue on the upside (gold, energy, software) and downside (transportation). However, many of these seasonal trades reach the end of their period of seasonal strength this month. September is a month of transition.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
So Mr. Bernanke, Ready for a run down Corbett’s Couloir?
Following on from last week’s peak of the Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s closely watched speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, markets widely believe that further quantitative easing (QE) is now on the cards for the central bank’s next meeting on September 13th and 14th.
ArcelorMittal 2009 results commentary
ArcelorMittal swung to a fourth-quarter profit from a year-earlier loss on 16% lower sales. ArcelorMittal said it earned $1.07 billion after losing $2.63 billion in the prior-year quarter, when it took a $4.4 billion hit from writing down inventory and raw-material- supply contracts as well as provisions for workforce-reduction litigation.