Category Archives: Commodities
Global Weekly FI & Forex Strategy Update
The IMF announced today that it expects global growth this year of 3.5%, down from 3.7% in 2018 and from the 3.7% it had forecast for 2019 back in October, and is trimming the growth outlook for the Euro-zone currency to 1.6% from 1.8%, but for now, keeping its prediction for US growth this year unchanged at 2.5%. Growth in emergingmarket countries is forecast to slow to 4.5% from 4.6% in 2018. The IMF expects the Chinese economy to grow 6.2% this year, down from 6.6% in 2018 and slowest since 1990.
Global Equities Strategy Update
As long as those issues weigh on investors’ minds, we see it hard for global equities markets and commodities to rise from current levels.
Q1 2019 Global Markets Outlook & Investment Strategy
For Q1 2019, we see best alpha opportunities for investors in the G-10 equities, particularly in global Consumer goods, industrials, Manufacturing, Utilities, Insurance. Although globally equities are now less expensive, US equities are currently representing the highest valuation risk, with headwind of a “too strong” USD not factored in correctly by analysts yet..
Weekly Equities Strategy Update
We see the complaisance for US equities and EPS too high, particularly as analysts and strategists continue to be “late-to-the-plate” on adjusting EPS for the latest swings in the USD. With the USD moving from 88 – 96 within just 5 months, now there is too little recognition by analysts and investors for that embedded USD strength weighing on Q3 and Q4 EPS, which we estimate need to be adjusted due to current USD temporary strength by at least -4 to -6 cents from current full year consensus of 154.
Weekly Equities Strategy Update
We still reommend that investors should reevaluate their current holdings, and pay close attention to the seasonal forces that likely will come into play in the short term. Seasonally, the next period of strength for US, EU and Asian equities comes into play in the month of October.
Weekly Global Equities Strategy Update
US economic focuses this week are on the FOMC announcement on the Fed Fund rate on Wednesday and the July Employment report on Friday. We think for the coming weeks, yields for the 10-Year are capped at the flag’s implied target of 3.14%, the highest level since mid-2011, implying a much faster pace of tightening, how might that affect equities?
Commodities & Currencies Strategy Update
Now, that we are past the middle of the summer, investors should reevaluate their current holdings, and pay close attention to the seasonal forces that likely will come into play in the short term. We are advising investors to invest along the seasonal trends:
Q3 Global Markets Outlook & Investment Strategy
Globally, equities are getting expensive, with US equities currently representing the highest valuation risk, with some tailwind benefits of a weaker USD fading temporarily. For Q3 2018, we see increased risks for investors in the G-10 equities, particularly in global Auto’s, Financials, Banks, Consumer Goods.
Currencies & Commodities Strategy Update
The CRB Index gained 0.91 points (0.45%) last week. Intermediate trend is Positive. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is Positive. $CRB remains above the important level of 200. The $CRB closed above its 20-day MVA. Short-term momentum indicators are mixed.
2018 Q2 Global Markets Outlook & Investment Strategy
Global economy to advance at 3.8% to 4.1% GDP in 2018, +3.7% in Q2
Global inflation to remain under 5%, US under 2.2%, EU under 2% for all of 2018
US economy to remain on target 2.5% in Q2, consumer driven, partly due to embedded US$ strength continuing to weigh on trade, tourism, FDI
Weekly Currencies Strategy & Charts
In economic news, US retail sales fell for a third straight month in February as
households cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items. The
Commerce Department said retail sales fell 0.1% last month against consensus
expectations of a +0.3% monthly rise.
FX & Commodities Outlook
Two weeks ago the World Bank has forecast prices to increase modestly in 2018 for
almost all energy and non-energy commodities, with the exception of fertilizers, metals and minerals. The World Bank now sees Oil (WTI) to average $56/barrel in 2018, a 6% rise from $53/barrel in 2017, still significantly below our 2018 price target of $78 for WTI.
Weekly Commodities Strategy & Charts
We maintain our global GDP forecasts for 2018 of 3.8%, and hence why we see the price dynamics for commodities in general, but particularly for the oil and energy markets to remain very bullish.
Weekly Commodities Strategy & Charts
We maintain our global GDP forecasts for 2017 of 3.4%, and at 3.8% for 2018, and hence why we see the price dynamics for commodities in general, but particularly for the oil and energy markets to remain very bullish.
Weekly Commodities Strategy & Charts
We maintain our global GDP forecasts for 2017 of 3.1%, and at 3.3% for 2018, and hence why we see the price dynamics for commodities in general, but particularly for the oil and energy markets to remain very bullish.
Weekly Commodities Strategy & Charts
For next year, we continue to see developing economies to lead global growth as higher commodity prices and improving fiscal positions will buttress their growth. In particular, the consolidation of the economic recoveries in Brazil and Russia will shore up economic activity in their regions.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
We clearly see better value still in Asian and EU stocks, and for investors to
overweight in both, relative to US equities and achieve higher returns until yearend
2017.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
At a market level, investors’ medium-term strategic bias on equities continues to show signs of moving onto a less positive path. The latest sentix survey suggests sentiment and investors’ strategic bias on Eurozone equities has modestly weakened.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
The International Monetary Fund today published a report indicating that The global economic recovery has strengthened financial stability but easy monetary and financial conditions against a backdrop of sluggish inflation is elevating medium-term risks. The IMF upgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2017 by 0.1% point to 3.6%, and to 3.7% for 2018, from its April and July outlook, driven by a pickup in trade, investment, and consumer confidence.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
Investors increasingly poles apart on Equities versus Bonds The latest sentix survey
indicates that investors remain resolutely upbeat on equities and deeply downbeat on
bunds. As a result, the sentiment gap between bunds and Eurozone equities is now
large and growing, albeit the gap has yet to reach historic lows.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
In the Americas, Friday’s release of the publicly available data from ECRI puts its
Weekly Leading Index (WLI) at 143.4, unchanged from the previous week. Y-o-y the 4-week moving average of the indicator is now at 2.83%, down from 3.09% last week and its 11th consecutive week of declines. The WLI Growth indicator is now at 0.0, also down from the previous week, it’s lowest since March of 2016.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
In the Americas, the US economy is on track to grow at a 3.7% annualized pace in Q3, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP Now forecast model showed on Friday, following the release of the government’s July payrolls report.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
We have highlighted since May 5th that signs of a seasonal peak in European and
now also for North American equity markets had arrived. The Euro Stoxx 600, the
DAX and the CAC reached their seasonal peaks on May 13th.
Investment Strategy Update
We continue recommending for investors to reduce equity positions in G-10
markets into the last rally before the summer, as we are forecasting for a -12% to
-15% decline in European and US stocks to materialize.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
We continue to see the Euro to stabilize further and continue to rise. Safe heaven
currencies like the US$ and like Gold will reverse course and decline. As per our
Q3 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy, the EUR/US$ is on track to rise to our
Q3 end target of 1.18, and our 2017 EUR/USD target of 1.18 – 1.24.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts Update
We continue to see the Euro to stabilize further and continue to rise. Safe heaven
currencies like the US$ and like Gold will reverse course and decline. As per our
Q3 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy, the EUR/US$ is on track to rise to our
Q2 end target of 1.18, and our 2017 EUR/USD target of 1.18 – 1.20.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts
As per our Q2 Global Outlook and Investment Strategy, we have been advising
our clients to reduce exposure to the US$ ($USD) and US equities ($SPX), and
instead increase allocations into US long bonds, namely 10-Year Treasuries
($TNX), and into EU and EM currencies and equities, which form a tactical Asset
allocation call has been spot on so far in the current quarter.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts
Europe is emerging as a region that offers a stable investment environment, just as the fate of other economies is harder to predict. The UK is facing complex divorce
negotiations with the EU. There are significant economic downsides from Brexit for the UK. The damage to the EU economy is probably limited, and the impact might well be positive. Especially if companies and financial institutions decide to move to the continent.
Investment Strategy Update & Charts
We continue to see the Euro to stabilize further and continue to rise. Safe heaven
currencies like the US$ and like Gold will reverse course and decline. As per our
Q3 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy, the EUR/US$ is on track to rise to our
Q2 end target of 1.18, and our 2017 EUR/USD target of 1.18 – 1.20.
2017 Q3 Global Markets Outlook & Investment Strategy
Globally, equities are getting expensive, with US equities currently representing the highest valuation risk, as US corporate earnings will be revised downwards, partly due to the continued higher weighted US$ and its negative translational impacts.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update
World trade flows grew in Q1, continuing a recovery that began in 2H of last year in an indication that the global economy may be set to enjoy a year of stronger growth. World trade flows grew at the slowest pace since the financial crisis in 2016 as a whole, but there are signs 2017 will mark a rebound.
Investment Strategy Update
In Europe, IHS Markit’s Eurozone Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index
for May, seen as a good guide to growth, matched the previous month’s 56.8, its
highest since April 2011.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts
We are seeing increasing signs of a very similar credit bubble in the US as in 2006/2007, and investors should consequently diversify risks by re-allocating more assets outside of the US equities and credit markets.
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts
In the Americas, US retail sales and CPI data released on Friday gave further confirmation that the US economy is slowing.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Since March of last year, we also started to see increasing macro evidence that
the Euro area was going to be a more stable, secure and reliable place to invest
in than the UK and US, but our call fell mostly on deaf ears until 2017. Europe has
emerged once again as a region that offers a stable political and macro economic
environment, just as the fate of other economies is harder to predict.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
As per our Q2 Global Outlook and Investment Strategy, we have been advising
our clients to reduce exposure to the US$ ($USD) and US equities ($SPX), and
instead increase allocations into US long bonds, namely 10-Year Treasuries
($TNX), and into EU and EM currencies and equities, which form a tactical Asset
allocation call has been spot on so far in the current quarter.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
We see European stocks will likely rally for another short period, until they reach the zenith of annual dividends paid out in mid-May. We recommend for investors to start reducing equity positions into the last rally before the summer, as we are forecasting for a -12% to -15% decline in European and US stocks to materialize once the period of seasonal strength for this asset class will pivot into their strongest period of seasonal weakness from May to October.
US Macro slowing, US$ & US equities Trump Dump
As we have been warning investors for the past 8 weeks, we have highlighted noticeable surface cracks in the US economy, which slowly are impacting how the US$, US bonds and US equities are performing.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Headline prices in the US, UK and Europe are already at or above 2%. At the same time, seven central banks globally are still running negative interest rate policy (NIRP), while aggregate global quantitative easing continues to expand at breakneck speed. Looking ahead, we think central bank liquidity, the major factor that helped support risky assets during the post-crisis era, might peak by early 2018.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Looking ahead, we think central bank liquidity, the major factor that helped
support risky assets during the post-crisis era, might peak by early 2018.
2017 Q2 Global Markets Outlook & Investment Strategy
The global economy is still slowing, negatively affected by geo-political distress, but will accelerate in 1H 2017. +85% of the central banks are still supporting the
global economies by additional monetary stimulus. Productivity growth to improve due to labor, financial and product markets reforms in place, particl. Europe Investment to pick up (modernization of capital stock)
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Given the AHCA defeat last Friday, financial markets have to re-assess reality versus wishful thinking. As we had been writing for the past 5 weeks, US assets (US$ and US equities) had been very overbought, and had failed to move towards new highs, and double tops had been put in place. We see Friday’s equity markets’ reversal as a major catalyst for trend change, and the catalyst for investors to focus on major asset re-allocation thinking.
Weekly Investment Strategy & Charts
Investor sentiment towards emerging market (EM) equities remains closely
linked with views on commodities. It is notable then that optimism on
commodities as a grouping has been tempered in the past month, even as EM
sentiment has headed higher.
Morning Markets Commentary & Charts
In the US, the main event in the markets today will be the FOMC meeting. A rate hike
of 25bps seems a done deal, and seems fully priced into bonds and the USD, however market participants will be looking towards the statement regarding future rate hikes and a possible reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet.In the US, the main event in the markets today will be the FOMC meeting. A rate hike of 25bps seems a done deal, and seems fully priced into bonds and the USD, howeve market participants will be looking towards the statement regarding future rate hikes
and a possible reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
We continue recommending for investors to use the current US$ strength and
diversify into the seasonally better performing European and EM equities. As we
have written in the past 3 months, we see a stronger case in favor of higher
European allocations until mid May.
Weekly Market Commentary & charts
We continue recommending for investors to use the current US$ strength and
diversify into the seasonally better performing European and EM equities. As we
have written in the past 3 months, we see a stronger case in favor of higher
European allocations until mid May.
Morning Market Commentary & Charts
On the economic front, US Q4 GDP growth was confirmed at its second reading, official data yesterday showed. The Bureau of Economic Analysis confirmed Q4 growth at 1.9%. (Vs. consensus forecast Q4 GDP to be revised upward to 2.1%).
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
We continue recommending for investors to use the current US$ strength and
diversify into the seasonally better performing European and EM equities. As we
have written in the past 3 months, we see a stronger case in favor of higher
European allocations until mid May. We believe that the political and sovereign
tail risks for Europe, particularly with respect to potential Eurozone
disintegration, are fully priced in the weak Euro and European equities.
Weekly Commentary & Charts
We continue recommending for investors to use the current US$ strength and
diversify into the seasonally better performing European and EM equities. As we
have written in the past 3 months, we see a stronger case in favor of higher
European allocations until mid May. We believe that the political and sovereign
tail risks for Europe, particularly with respect to potential Eurozone
disintegration, are fully priced in the weak Euro and European equities.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
AUD and CAD turn higher, USD weakness is gaining breadth.
Commodities break to the upside (Oil, Copper, Steel, Platinum, Palladium).
Emerging Market equities break out to the upside (Brazil; India; China).
Stock/Bond ratio ready to break higher.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Continue to Sell/short US$ against commodities based currencies like
BRL, AUD, CAD, but also against the EUR
Overweight US 10 Year Treasuries
Continue to Overweight Commodities, Energy, metals
Overweight foreign stocks short and medium term, namely European
(German, French, Spanish, Dutch), Canadian, Japanese, Chinese, Russian
and Brazilian equities
Underweight US & UK equities
Morning Market Commentary & Charts
For the past 3 years we have been highlighting a disturbing and fairly overlooked
fact, namely that investors seem to like hype and hope over reality, particularly
when it comes to comparing investment outlook and opportunities between the
US and Europe, but also by comparing the US to the ROW.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Investors are now clearly waiting for concrete economic policies from the Trump administration, with both the upward move in US yields and the US$ losing some momentum. Furthermore, we think there is an increasing chance that global risk sentiment could be affected by a possible standoff between China and the US. Longer term, we could see risks rise to a global recovery from more economic protectionism.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The US$, (and all US$ priced and related asset classes like US equities and US
treasuries, commodities) are simply overbought, overheld, overvalued and
overdue for a correction. We see better value in foreign equity markets,
particularly as Japanese, Chinese and European equities are in the strongest
period of seasonal strength until end of April.
Basic Resources & Metals Commentary & Charts
After some significant consolidation in the industry over the past 2 years, (M&A, capacity adjustments, strategic alliances, etc.) we had forecasted that the 2H of 2016 would be a turning point for basic resources pricing and outlook. At this point, we would like to reiterate that we are expecting for basic resources and metal prices to advance by another +25% in 2017 from current levels.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
We are recommending for investors to hold seasonally attractive equity positions that remain in an intermediate uptrend and continue to outperform the S&P 500
Index (e.g. precious metals, technology, selected Canadian energy, DIS, UNH,
AAPL, etc.). Profit taking in other positions is appropriate. As highlighted in our
Fixed Income commentary, year-end portfolio adjustments continue, most
notably the switch to fixed income securities from equities.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
2017 seems for most an inherently tricky year to forecast, since the political shift in
power creates so many unknowns. Policy implementation could play a big role in
shaping economic output and corporate profitability, and both of these factors matter
immensely to stock performance.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
We are advising to stick with the seasonal trend in equity prices for the next two
weeks, but are warning investors to prepare to lock in significant profits before
Inauguration Day on January 20th.
Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
We believe that the global financials sector is likely to see a massive comeback
in 2017, as a rising rate environment combined with attractive valuations a
positioning, in the financials sector could be the perfect hedge against further
interest rate hikes in the portfolio.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
In the US, the strong US$ is having continued negative affects on the US economy in many different ways. The Census Bureau published its advanced look at international trade in the US and the result showed the deficit widened to $62.0 BN from $56.5 BN previous. Continue reading
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The very reliable long-term equity/bond model favor bonds over equities, therefore, investors should continue to overweigh their portfolios with bonds over stocks for safety and better return. Can investors’ temporary blindness become the “trumping” reason to go long bonds after the inherent correction of the 10Year treasury yields moving to our 2.35% yield target? We think so.
D-day & market impacts
Trump win = US & global equity markets move lower,
US$ will decline by -20% over 12 – 18 months
commodities & alternatives will rise by 40%
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Economic and political focus this week is on results of the election on Tuesday. Other
economic reports this week are not expected to be market movers.
Strategy Update US
It was just a week ago that we wrote how one can’t allow fears of a black swan event to worry oneself into inaction. We acknowledged the political uncertainty hanging over the market, noting that it would be resolved when voters went to the polls on November 8th. But what if it isn’t?
Macro Commentary & Strategy update
The better than expected 2.9% annualized gain in third-quarter GDP will provide all the justification that the Fed needs to raise rates in December.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Economic focus in the US next week is on the FOMC meeting. Consensus is that the
Fed Fund rate will remain at 0.25%-0. 50%, but the Federal Reserve will give a clear
signal about increasing the Fed Fund rate by 0.25% at its December meeting. Other US economic reports are expected to confirm that the US economy is growing at a slow but steady rate.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The time to buy into capital goods, mining, and railroad and energy stocks has never been better than right now.We continue recommending for investors to buy commodities such as crude oil and gold.
Market Commentary & Charts
As per our 2016 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy which we published last
year in December, when comparing Real Assets versus Financial Assets, the
following chart shows that real assets are at all-time lows versus financial assets.
The time to buy into capital goods, mining, and railroad and energy stocks has
never been better than right now.
Market Commentary & Charts
In the Americas, US CPI core inflation fell to 2.2% y-o-y in September from 2.3% y-o-y in August. The Fed’s preferred measure for inflation is PCE core inflation, which has been running below the 2% target for 52 consecutive months and the upcoming September figure will make it 53 months.
Market Commentary & Charts
In the Americas, the US FED has grossly overestimated growth rates of the economy, and it appears that it the economic growth has slows down considerably. We start seeing in various leading indicators for the November and December 2016 data to likely be worsening.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Again, the way we continue seeing it, the macro climate in both the US and most
of the G-10 countries is still fading, global trade still depressed, and capacity
global utilization still well under 70%, we see no rational reason as to why the
FED should raise rates this year, or in 2017.
Market Commentary & Charts
In the Americas, investors in the US are awaiting the minutes of the FOMC meeting are supposed to show the FED taking a clearer stand on when they are going to raise rates. The market is getting more convinced, one more time, like it did for the past 2 years so many times, only to be wrong, over and over again. The odds of a December rate hike increased yet again to 74.5% from 69.5%. The odds of two hikes increased from 5.5% to 7.4%.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The period of uncertainty for world equity markets continues. Many equity markets,
commodities and primary sectors have returned to the top of their trading range
previously reached in mid-July. Establishment of another intermediate uptrend is
unlikely prior to the US Presidential election on November 8th. Prospects following the Presidential election are positive. Seasonal influences begin to change in the month of October.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The period of uncertainty for world equity markets continues. Many equity markets,
commodities and primary sectors have returned to the top of their trading range
previously reached in mid-July. Establishment of another intermediate uptrend is
unlikely prior to the US Presidential election on November 8th.Prospects following the Presidential election are positive.
2016 Q4 Global Markets Strategy & Equities Outlook
As highlighted in our 2016 Global Investment Strategy & Outlook, the global macro fundamentals had been slowing as we anticipated, and consequently Central Banks in the US, Japan and Europe have been adding liquidity to dampen the slowdown. Contrary to most “sell-side” big firms, which had been predicting 4 rate hikes by the FED in 2016 (GS, JPM, UBS, DB to name just a few) besides “buy-siders” (of the likes of Bill Gross/Pimco/Janus, Mohammed El Erian/Allianz and too many others to name).
Morning Market Commentary
The WTO estimated global trade volume is set to grow just 1.7 percent in 2016, a much lower forecast compared with April’s 2.8%. It marks the first time in 15 years that international commerce has grown more slowly than the world economy. World trade has been in decline since 2H 2014 (totally coincides with the parabolic rise of the US$ since June 2014).
Morning Market Commentary
Not a lot of substance on differentiation of both candidates’ 4-year economic and socio-political pans. One hour into the debate, the candidates had failed communicating their priorities. There’s been no “on my first day in office …” or “the first bill I’ll sign …” or other similar promises. Trump is most animated about trade and immigration, but it’s harder to tell which issue, if any, Clinton is putting at the center of her campaign. The only noteworthy difference between both candidates highlighted in last nights debate was when they debated how to grow jobs and incomes; Trump mentioned cutting regulation, while Clinton vowed to boost manufacturing jobs; both touted their tax and trade policies.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Slower than consensus economic news from the US, Japan, Brazil and smaller parts of Europe last week proved to be good news for markets. Additionally, as we were
expecting, the Federal Reserve decision to maintain the Fed Fund rate at .25%-0.50% on Wednesday afternoon boosted equity, commodity and bond prices. Economic news this week is expected to confirm an additional slowdown in US economic growth in Q3.
Market Commentary & Charts
As an immediate reaction to no policy change by the FED, we see the US$ on the precipice of needing to deflate. All the arguments and hopes and hypes which propelled the US$ to its “temporary parabolic rise in 2014” are no longer in place at this time, and surely looking out over the next 12 – 18 months:
Market Commentary & Charts
The OECD announced today it cut its forecasts for global and US growth.
OECD now expects global economy to grow 2.9% this year, down from forecast of
3.0% in June.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
The period of increased volatility and increasing weakness for world equity
markets continues until the end of October.
Morning Market Commentary & Charts
Federal Reserve officials continue to gauge financial markets by controversial policy speak. Equity markets moved sharply lower on Friday on “hawkish” comments on the Fed Fund rate by Eric Rosengren. Then yesterday “dovish” officials, such as Fed Governor Brainard were implying less of a chance for an increase in the Fed Fund rate. This is the perfect parody for global financial markets.Just imagine corporate executives acting like FED officials, and coming out with controversial statements about earnings expectations all the time, this would lead to serious SEC/FAC investigations on conflicts of interest. Or just imagine another foreign central Bank, like the ECB, or BoJ or the Central Bank of China to “mislead” financial markets the way that the FED is. Unimaginable.
Morning Commentary & Charts
We continue advising investors to reduce equities exposure and buy instead 10-
Year and 30-Year US treasuries into the weakest 2 months for equities ahead.
Strategy Update
What are we likely to see in the aftermath of Brexit?
The many implications for monetary policy can all be distilled down to one simple
thought: continued accommodative monetary policy by central banks globally.
US Investment Strategy update
Global bond yields plumbed new levels on Friday when concerns over global
growth re-emerged after the World Bank announced that it was cutting its global
growth forecast from January yet again—this time from 2.9% to 2.4% for 2016 and
from 3.1% to 2.8% for 2017.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Pessimism remains the dominant theme on Financials, with sentiment readings on
Insurance hitting a two-year low and Banks firmly entrenched at the low-end of their
historic sentiment range versus the market.
Morning Commentary & Charts
The continuing weakness in the US$ Index helped commodities and US equity prices to rise yesterday.
Morning Commentary & Charts Memorial Day Thoughts
This year’s Memorial Day, Americans are enjoying “most memorable low gas prices” for the start of the summer driving season in over a decade, with the weighted average price of regular gas is $2.30 per gallon, -17% lower than this time last year.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
We are advising investors to buy US 10-Year and 30-year treasuries at current
levels, as we do expect the traditional “Sell in May & Go Away” for equities to
have a significant affect in 2016.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Global equities have passed their peak of annual seasonal strength on May 11th,
we are advising investors to aggressively sell Chinese, Japanese, US and EU
equities immediately, as many macro-economic, geo-political and political risks
will likely rise over the next 2 – 4 months into the summer.
Strategy Update – US
We suggest trimming equity exposure by taking profits in those sectors that have
outperformed over the past three months such as materials, mining and
industrials to build cash levels.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Global equities have reached their peak of annual seasonal strength in late April/mid May, we are advising investors to aggressively sell Chinese, Japanese, US and EU equities immediately, as many macro-economic, geo-political and political risks will likely rise over the next 2 – 4 months into the summer.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
Now that global equities have reached their peak of annual seasonal strength in
late April/mid May, we are advising investors to be aggressively selling Chinese,
Japanese, US and EU equities, as many macro-economic, earnings outlook and
geo-political risks will rise over the next 2 – 4 months into the summer.
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Economic focus this week is on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Consensus is that the Federal Reserve will maintain the Fed Fund Rate at 0.25-0.50%. However, the bond market began to respond last week to anticipation of message by the Fed that it plans to increase the Fed Fund rate soon based on incremental evidence that slow US economic growth is accelerating.