Category Archives: GMTO-Global Markets Technical Outlook
Weekly Investment Strategy Update & Charts
We are seeing increasing signs of a very similar credit bubble in the US as in 2006/2007, and investors should consequently diversify risks by re-allocating more assets outside of the US equities and credit markets.
Morning Markets Commentary & Charts
In the US, the main event in the markets today will be the FOMC meeting. A rate hike
of 25bps seems a done deal, and seems fully priced into bonds and the USD, however market participants will be looking towards the statement regarding future rate hikes and a possible reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet.In the US, the main event in the markets today will be the FOMC meeting. A rate hike of 25bps seems a done deal, and seems fully priced into bonds and the USD, howeve market participants will be looking towards the statement regarding future rate hikes
and a possible reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet.
Weekly Market Commentary & Charts
“Brexit shock waves” continue to rattle all asset classes globally. We see conceptionally no asset class and no geographic area not to be impacted by the outcome of the referendum. Brexit is expected to continue to impact equity markets negatively this week. Precious metals and precious metal equities and ETFs are the exception. This is the season for higher volatility and lower equity markets until just before US Presidential election day.
Global Automotive Demand Atlas
CGI Morning Note
We continue to see weakening global macro data, and consequently we believe that the past 7 days sell off in US and European 10-year Treasuries is overdone, and that current market prices constitute a clear “buy” signal. We are advising for investors to step up investments into 10-year US and European bonds, which sold off excessively in the past week, on nothing but a bit of improving, but still mixed, and not sustainable macro data from Europe and the US in the past three days.
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Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
European, US and Japanese equity markets period of seasonal strength is starting now. Hence, why we recommend reducing equity weightings in those markets, and advising investors to wait for better prices for re-allocating money in late summer.
030915 – CGI Morning Market Commentary and Weekly Charts
030915 CGI Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Global Strategist Carlo Besenius reviews weekly equity, fixed income, commodity and currency market trends and asset allocation.
022315 – CGI Morning Market Commentary and Weekly Charts
Strategist CArlo Besenius reviews global equity, fixied income, currency and commodity markets.
020215: CGI Morning Market Commentary and Weekly Charts
Global Strategist Carlo Besenius reviews global equity, fixed income, commodity, and currency markets.
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Independent Research outperforms Investment Banks for 3 years running
The Value of Independent Research, from Investars.
012815: CGI Morning Market Commentary and Weekly Charts
Strategist Carlo Besenius’ view on the equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets.
012615: CGI Morning Market Commentary and Weekly Charts
Strategist Carlo Besnius reviews global currency, bond, equity and commodity markets
011915 – CGI Morning Market Commentary and Weekly Charts
011915 CGI Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Global Strategist Carlo Besenius reviews global equity, fixed income, currency, and commodity markets.
011215 – CGI Global Market Strategy and Weekly Charts
011215 CGI Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts
Global Strategist Carlo Besenius reviews global equity, fixed income, commodity and currency markets, with commentary on Global market Strategy
111714 – CGI Morning Market Commentary and Weekly Charts
Strategist Carlo Besenius reviews the global equity, fixed income, currency and commodity markets. Sectors which seasonally outperform during this period include: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Industrials and Materials.
091114 – CGI Morning Market Commentary – US Dollar Temporarily Overvalued
091114 CGI Morning Market Commentary Charts
Carlo Besenius’ views on the global markets – equities, fixed income, and currency.
072114 – CGI Weekly Market Charts – BRICs to continue outperforming
072114 CGI Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts BRIC equities continue to outperform
Carlo Besenius provides a weekly market overview of Equity Markets, Rates, Currencies, and Commodities.
063014 – CGI Global Automotive Demand Atlas – June
06 30 2014 CGI – GADA – June 2014 edition
Automotive Analyst Sabine Blumel’s analysis of Global Automotive Demand.
071414 – CGI Weekly Market Commentary: Baltic Dry, Yen, Sector Seasonality
Carlo Besenius discusses global asset allocation strategies – BDI, Yen, Sector Seasonality, EAFE vs US.
060914 – CGI Morning Market Views: Buy 10Y EuroBonds, Sell $, Sell US Equities
Carlo Besenius analyzes the European Bond markets and sees further support for periphery bonds in the coming months. Equity markets have become parabolic, with downside risks increasing greatly.
052214 – CGI Seasonality Analysis
We review the seasonality factors impacting global debt and equity markets over the summer. Equities are expected to see a period of weakness, with good probability for an increase in volatility mid summer.
050814 – CGI Market Commentary: Breakdowns!: Sell NASDAQ, $USD, Buy EURO
050814 CGI Morning Market Commentary EURO testing critical resistance, US$ retesting support
Global Strategist Carlo Besenius reviews market technical patterns. For the past month we have voiced concerns over the market, and feel that the markets are set for a correction over the summer months. See our full report for Index and Sector recommendations.
050114 – Seasonality Trends and Mid Year Allocation Strategies
050114 CGI Seasonality of various Asset Classes and Mid Year Strategies
Short and intermediate technical indicators for most global markets and sectors are overbought and rolling over. We are advising investors to use any temporary market strength is an opportunity to take profits, keeping seasonal trends of the various shown equity indices, bond indices and currency indices in mind. We believe that it would be prudent for investors to reduce exposure in US & European equity markets in economically sensitive sectors at current prices.
We have been focusing on various type of alpha generating strategies since our early days; however, one of the most effective strategies we constantly attempt to refine and adapt to maximize outperformance is the “seasonality affect” of various asset categories.Although there are defined seasonal trends for equities, bonds, currencies, and commodities, they are not directly correlated, nor inversely correlated. It takes more detailed analysis in order to get a better understanding on the “why’s and why not’s” of seasonality factors for each asset class.
We welcome the opportunity to work with you directly to create appropriate portfolio hedging strategies to take advantage of these seasonality trends.
-42514 – CGI Market Commentary: Eurozone Deflation Fears Overdone, US Markets Peak, AAPL fails to lift $NDX and $
Numerous Strategists and news commentaries have focused on the risk of deflation in the Eurozone. CGI’s Global Strategist Carlo Besenius discusses why deflation does not always lead to lower growth and employment. The ECB has numerous tools left to stimulate prices should they choose to in the coming months. As CGI has stated for several weeks, the equity markets have peaked. AAPL’s rise of 8% yesterday failed to lift the NASDAQ in spite of the company’s 7.5% weighting in the index. Take profits and reduce equity market weightings, particularly in the US.
042514 CGI Market Commentary- Eurozone deflation hype, US equity markets have peaked, AAPL is proof
041114- CGI Morning Market Commentary: Greek Bonds, STOXX, CRB, $USD
Yesterday’s Greek Bond auction was a far cry from the turmoil facing the country less than two years ago. CGI recommended purchasing European periphery debt in the fall of 2012, and contested the notion that the EU was at risk of failure. We continue to see European equity markets as fertile territory for institutional investors.
The $USD Index continues to weaken. A fall below $79 sees risk to $73.
The CRB continues to strengthen.
041114 CGI Morning Market Commentary – Greek Bonds, STOXX, CRB, $USD
Morning Market Commentary & Weekly Charts – Equities VIX increasing, Agris to rise further
Weekly Investment Conclusion
The intermediate corrective phase in North American equity markets remains intact.
Short-term strength provides an opportunity to reduce equity exposure, particularly in sectors that have a history of moving lower during a summer corrective phase.
These sectors included industrials, consumer discretionary, materials and financials.
The sectors, which we have identified so far, that are showing positive momentum for seasonal trades this summer are fertilizers and gold. They already are showing signs of outperformance relative to the S&P 500 Index and the TSX Composite Index.