This morning the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its global growth forecast for 2016 from 3.3% to 3.0% and warned that some emerging markets are at risk of exchange-rate volatility. The downgrade in forecasts is broadly due to disappointing incoming data for Q4 of 2015 and the recent weakness and volatility in global financial markets, which are affecting some emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to sharp exchange-rate movements and the effects of high domestic debt. The OECD’s revised global growth outlook is still to optimistic in our view, and we are expecting for major organizations like the OECD and IMF to continue to downgrade global GDP over time to our forecasted 2.4% levels for 2016.
