We do not share the viewpoint that oil could hit $20 per barrel, as the Saudis not long ago would have us believe. Yet quite a few high profile commodity strategists would also have us believe that the price of oil has nowhere to go but down. There’s some irony in that statement since we’ve written since May that oil prices were headed lower in the near term and would make new yearly lows by October, which they did in August before rallying to, but failing to hold, the $50 level last month. But in our view volatility is likely to remain pervasive as prices head for an eventual unsuccessful retest of the August low of $38. However, longer term we believe that the bigger surprise is that oil prices could recover more strongly than indicated by industry executives or the futures market in 2016 as demand and supply fundamentals could rebalance more rapidly than currently anticipated by market participants. In the interim, oil prices will likely continue to frustrate bulls and bears alike.