We maintain our baseline forecast for 2016 of “No FED rate hike in 2016”, as the global inflationary pressures are still declining, and we see increasing macro-economical evidence of the US economy slowing, and of our baseline forecast becoming more widely be accepted both by central bankers and by market participants. Consequent to the market slowly adapting to our base line scenario, we do see a strong case for renewed allocations towards high yielding equities mostly outside of the US, particularly in the case of Japan and Europe, as those equities markets have entered their periods of seasonal strength until April for Japan, and mid-May in the case of Europe. In the US, dividend yields on S&P 500 stocks are competing with yields on 10-year Treasuries. Higher Treasury yields (i.e. lower Treasury prices) could prompt additional rotation into equities.
