Equities globally still offer the best risk-adjusted returns compared to most other asset classes. Overall, for the broader equity markets to go higher, we need to see a rotation into the more cyclical sectors and into the financials. We prefer sectors like Energy, Industrials, Materials, Financials, Utilities and particularly public infrastructure themes for Europe, the US and Japan, where valuation measures look less demanding, with increasing cash flows, and high yields and growing dividends like particularly in Automotive, Energy Industrials and Basic Materials. Chinese, Indian, Brazilian and Russian equities have entered their period of seasonal strength, and hence why recommend to stay overweight the Shanghai Composite, and increase weightings into Indian, Brazilian and Russian equities for Q2 2015. European equities remain cheapest on an absolute basis and and the relative valuation discount to bonds has improved over the past months, particularly since the ECB started QE. The much weaker Euro in combination with with much lower commodity prices for champion European industrial manufacturing and luxury manufacturers companies will help exports and increase earnings in 2015 beyond consensus estimates. European equities with much higher dividend yields than anywhere still offer much better risk-adjusted total returns. We see increasing M&A activities to be a big theme in Europe and help drive equity prices higher. However, Q2 in Europe, like in Japan and the US represents the period of seasonal weakness, and will offer better buying opportunities ahead.
032515 CGI 2015 Q2 Global Markets Strategy & Equities Outlook